It is looking increasingly likely that the Washington Capitals are going to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, and that is a development I am really having trouble comprehending. Mostly because it does not make any damn sense.
After their 4-3 win against the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, combined with the Philadelphia Flyers 6-5 overtime loss to the New York Rangers, they look to be in the driver’s seat for at least a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and potentially even the third spot in the Metropolitan Division.
By points percentage they actually surpassed the Flyers (.570 to .562) on Tuesday and are just one point behind in the standings while having two games in hand.
They also have a two-point lead over a rapidly fading Red Wings team for a Wild Card spot while having one game in hand.
They still have a lot of work to do over the next couple of weeks, but they have put themselves in a pretty strong position. Their remaining schedule is not overly easy, and it does feature a couple of head-to-head matchups with teams they are competing with for a playoff spot (including both Detroit again and Philadelphia), but they can not hate the situation they are in.
They also have games against Toronto, Boston (twice), Carolina and Tampa Bay that are not going to be easy.
Whether they actually get in or not the very fact we are even still talking about it as a possibility is staggering, because this team should absolutely stink! It should be terrible! There is no reason for it to be in the position it is in. It should worrying about draft lottery odds, not potential first-round playoff matchups.
You could say that based on the roster, which is extremely flawed and has been decimated by injuries, trades and aging stars all season. Anthony Mantha and Evgeny Kuznetsov were traded at the deadline. John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Max Pacioretty and even Alex Ovechkin are a fraction of what they once were at their peaks. Nicklas Backstrom is not going to come walking through that door anytime soon.
Then you get to their actual on-ice performance and it’s enough to leave you wondering how this team isn’t in the running for the first overall pick.
They don’t score goals, currently ranking 27th in the league in goals per game (just 2.73 per game).
They are not particularly good defensively, ranking 18th in the league in goals against per game (3.10 against).
Their goal-differential is a whopping minus-26 for the season, ranking 26th in the NHL. Only one other team in the bottom-10 in goal differential (the New York Islanders) has even managed to have a winning record at this point in the season, and their playoff chances are almost non-existent right now.
In terms of their ability to drive possession, the Capitals are again one of the NHL’s worst teams. Their expected goals share of 47 percent during 5-on-5 play is 26th in the NHL, they are 25th in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 23rd in scoring chance share.
Surely they must be getting great goaltending and have a dominant power play to mask all of those 5-on-5 flaws, right?
Wrong!
They are 21st in 5-on-5 save percentage, 14th in all-situations save percentage, 17th on the power play and 18th on the penalty kill.
There is not a single area where they are even an above average team, and in most areas they are among the worst in the league.
But here they are with a very real and legitimate chance to wrap up a top-three seed in the Metropolitan Division.
Let’s dig into this a little more, just how improbable it all is and if there has been anything recently to help them turn this around. Maybe we are simply missing something.
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