The Steelers are (mostly) who we thought they would be
An assortment of thoughts on where the Pittsburgh Steelers are and what should be reasonable expectations the rest of this season.
When the 2024 NFL season began the expectations for the Pittsburgh Steelers were not especially high.
The over/under on wins was typically around 8.5 wins depending on where you looked.
There was an expectation this would finally be the season they finished with a losing record — especially given the difficulty of the schedule — and that they might even be the least talented team in the AFC North (I did not buy into either notion).
Everybody looked at the three-game in 11-day stretch involving the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs as a hellacious run of games where they might be lucky to win even one of them. It was every bit as hellacious as expected and they won zero of them.
Because of that, there was going to be immense pressure on them to stack as many wins as possible early in the season to build themselves a cushion in case they could not get through that stretch. They did. Probably even more than was expected.
The end result is a team that goes into their Week 18 against the Cincinnati Bengals with 10 wins, still has a chance to win the division, and might have its best chance at a playoff win (even without a division title) over the past few years.
That is probably about what the best-case scenario for this team was, and it was honestly what my expectation was at the start (see here).
I think a lot of Steelers fans would have taken that at the start of the season given the expectations.
The thing about all of that is, I feel like the current perception of what this team is right now is a lot lower than it should be given the past three games.
It is also fair to say the perception of it going into those past three games was probably higher than it should have been.
It is a flawed team. But it is still a pretty good team.
It is a pretty good team. But it is not a Super Bowl team.
It never was. It was never going to be with this quarterback situation.
It is a team that will overachieve given the preseason expectations and quarterback limitations(and it objectively has overachieved), but still leave you disappointed because it is only a second-tier team instead of a bonafide Super Bowl contender (and it has left you disappointed).
That is what the Steelers have been for the past five or six years, and probably what they will continue to be until they figure out a way to bring more consistency and stability to the quarterback position.
That’s the difference.
That’s the difference between them and Kansas City, and Buffalo, and Baltimore, and Philadelphia.
The thing I keep going back to regarding the past three games is how much those games have completely shifted the narrative of the season and the team as a whole.
How much different would the perception be if those three games, even with the same results, were spread out evenly throughout the course of the season. If they played Philadelphia in say, week three, and lost the same game the same way, and then won three or four games in a row. And then played at Baltimore, lost the same game the same way, and then won two or three games in a row. And then played Kansas City, lost the same game the same way, and then won two or three games in a row.
I don’t think the perception of them would be the same as it is right now. I think the fact you saw those three games happen right in a row, and within a week-and-a-half stretch, has shifted the feelings of this team too far in one direction.
For me, I think the most frustrating thing about those games is not necessarily that they lost them all. That was a very likely possibility, and it was never going to get any easier the further they got into that stretch. I know the other three Christmas teams had to play the same three-game in 11-day stretch, but they all did not have to play three of the four best teams in the NFL during that stretch.
The most frustrating thing for me was that they ended up losing all three games by double-digits.
You can go back over each game and pinpoint moments where the games were competitive and they had chances, but every time they stepped on a series of rakes and made mistakes they do not typically make.
Najee Harris never fumbles. Literally never fumbles. But he did when the Steelers were driving for a potential game-tying touchdown late in the second half in Philadelphia. Completely swung the game.
Russell Wilson completely swung the Ravens game by fumbling at the two-yard line and then throwing an awful pick-six. He cost them 14 points. Completely swung the game both times.
Their fumble luck that had been on their side for much of the season completely ran out in the Baltimore and Kansas City games. Completely swung both games.
But all of that is secondary to the reality that they just got beat, and beaten soundly. They showed they are not quite on THAT level.
I think the reason I am not as down as other people is because, well, this is the season I expected.
They have mostly won the games they were supposed to win. They have mostly lost the games they were supposed to lose. The schedule ended up being even tougher than initially expected given the success of Denver and Los Angeles, and they still won more games than they were expected to win, and still have a chance to win more. Including in the playoffs.
I realize that is not necessarily the standard Steelers fans want — nor should it be overall — but I also don’t know what the alternative is right now.
They are not winning a Super Bowl with a 36-year-old Russell Wilson. They just aren’t. Nobody is. Until they figure out a way to remedy that position, the ceiling is going to be lowered.
But I also have zero appetite to watch a couple of 2-15 seasons to hope and pray that a top pick quarterback will pan out. Because that is not the winning formula people think it is. Especially when you look at the best teams in the NFL right now and where — and how — they got their franchise quarterbacks. It wasn’t by tanking and being bad.
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick in the draft, in a year where Kansas City started off with the No. 27 overall pick.
Lamar Jackson was the No. 32 pick.
Jordan Love was the No. 26 pick.
Jared Goff was a No. 1 pick, but it wasn’t in Detroit. They traded for him.
Sam Darnold was a top-five pick, but it wasn’t by Minnesota. He was a reclamation project that had to go through two other teams as a backup. He wasn’t even supposed to play this season.
Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick.
Of the top-10 teams in the NFL standings going into Week 18 the only two that picked their quarterbacks higher than 10th were Buffalo (Josh Allen at No. 7) and Washington (Jayden Daniels at No. 2).
They have to find their guy. This offseason. Figure it out. They have not been able to do that.
If they can, they can absolutely get to that next tier of teams in short order.
Like I said above, that is the difference. It is the only difference.
Yeah, the defense struggled in these recent games. Yeah, that is a concern. Maybe it’s not quite as good as the salary or the perception. But it’s still good and the biggest reason the team has been even remotely competitive the past few years. That is also what top-tier quarterbacks do to good defenses sometimes. Sometimes they beat them. Sometimes you need to match that on offense. The Steelers did not, and generally can not. Largely because they do not have a quarterback that can.
All of that said, here is what I want to see over the next couple of weeks, starting with Saturday’s game.
Assuming the Steelers play their starters — and I am assuming they will — I want to see them play a solid football game. Cincinnati is overrated, but Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are legit. They will present a problem and the Steelers are not going to completely shut them down. But I want to see them at least limit them somewhat.
I want to see the offense take advantage of a bad defense.
They have had more than 10 days to prepare (which is sort of like a mini bye week), they are at home, and they are home underdogs. Those are all areas where Mike Tomlin teams generally succeed.
Since 2007 Tomlin teams are 36-16 when they have the rest advantage over an opponent. That is the best winning percentage in football during that stretch in said games. Over just the past five years they are 10-4 in said games. Also a top-five winning percentage.
Since 2007 Tomlin teams are 18-12 as home underdogs, which is not only BY FAR the best winning percentage in football in said games, they are one of only two teams that even have a winning record in those games (Green Bay is the other). In fact, there are only two teams with a winning percentage over .465 in those games. Over the past five years they are 9-5 as home underdogs, also a top-five mark in the league.
AFC North teams playing on the road in prime time? Terrible. They have won just two of the past 20 games in those circumstances.
It is a winnable game.
If they are playing to win, I want to see them win it.
If they do, and if they play a solid game and remove some of the stench of the past three games, I think that changes the vibe going into a playoff game where it is at Houston or Baltimore or at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. I think any of those games are winnable. If they do, that’s 11 wins and a playoff win. I can not be mad at that.
It is not what I want to see overall. But it is also hard for me to be mad at it given the preseason expectations.