The Capitals may have turned themselves into a legit playoff team this offseason
A playoff team that might actually be somewhat competitive if/when they get there.
Let’s be honest here, the Washington Capitals probably shouldn’t have been a playoff team during the 2023-24 season.
At least not realistically. Or logically. Or statistically.
I mean, yes, they did finish with enough points, and they did finish on top of the pile of mediocrity that was fighting for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and at the end of the day that is all that matters. They still did more than rest of the slop that lost out. That counts for something. It is a results oriented business, and they managed to get the results that mattered.
That’s great. Perfect.
But nothing about that appearance made any sense. That is not me saying that as some sort of narrative based argument. That is based on the way they actually played on the ice and the way similar teams have succeeded (and mostly failed) over the years.
The numbers were baffling.
Overall they were outscored by 37 goals for the season. That was 20 goals worse than the next worst playoff team, one of the worst marks of any playoff team in the modern era. It was also sixth-worth mark in the NHL that season and placed them down near the teams in all-out rebuild modes.
Their underlying numbers? Brutal.
During 5-on-5 play they had a 46.6 percent shot attempt share, a 47.3 percent expected goals share and a 44.9 percent goals share. It was awful, and teams that post similar numbers typically perform at an awful level.
Since the start of the 2007-08 season there have only been 73 teams that finished a season with a lower than 48 percent share in all three of those categories.
Only 10 of them finished with a points percentage higher than .500.
Only four of them finished with a points percentage higher than .550.
Only four of them actually made the playoffs.
The average points percentage of those 73 teams is .449, which averages out to 71 points over 82 games. That is lottery team level bad.
But 5-on-5 play, while arguably the most important aspect of a team, is still just one part of the equation. Maybe the Capitals road some kind of magical special teams or goaltending wave to a playoff spot.
Nah. They did not even have that. They were 18th on the power play (though it did get significantly better in the second half of the season), 19th on the penalty kill, 20th in 5-on-5 save percentage and 15th in all situations save percentage.
There was no way the Capitals could have counted on that same roster and that same process producing the same results this season. If they had any realistic hopes of getting back to the playoffs in 2024-25 they were going to have to make some pretty significant changes to their roster and the talent that is on it.
As long as Alex Ovechkin is putting on a uniform and chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, that absolutely should be their goal. It might not be the most prudent long-term path in the eyes of some fans, but too many fans of too many teams are in too big of a hurry to see their team become bad.
You like the results of a rebuild when it works, but nobody actually enjoys sitting through it. It sucks. It is infuriating. It is awful. On top of that there is also no guarantee it is ever going to work. If you have a chance to keep competing, you should probably try to do it. Especially when one of the game’s all-time giants is still playing at a reasonably high level on your roster.
That brings us to the Capitals’ offseason which has seen them overhaul nearly a third of their roster in an effort to make sure they still remain competitive for at least another year of Ovechkin’s career.
They might have succeeded, because they look dramatically better on paper than the team that finished the 2023-24 season.
They look so much better that I could not only see them returning to the playoffs this season, but also have a chance to actually do something if they get there.
Let’s talk about it.
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