Talking Baseball: Vol. 4

The Pirates biggest disappointments, the early inconsistency of Oneil Cruz and more.

There was a Twitter discussion earlier this week about the biggest disappointment with the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates so far this season.

Closer David Bednar and starting pitcher Mitch Keller were two pretty big candidates because they at least have a track record of some MLB success and have badly underperformed it. Bednar has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for two years and opened this season as if his right arm was a gas can and the batters box was already a raging inferno for him to douse.

Keller might not be an ace, but he should at least be a serviceable No. 3 starter and he has not even given the Pirates that level of pitching so far. At least not consistently.

Then there were the two most promising young players on the roster, catcher Henry Davis and shortstop Oneil Cruz.

They were always going to be the biggest X-factors for this team, and their development (or lack of development) was always going to help make-or-break what this team’s ceiling would be. Davis, just a couple of years removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, has been so bad at the plate that he has already been demoted down to Triple-A as Joey Bart and Yasmani Grandal take over the catching duties.

Cruz is the player Pirates fans have been dreaming on for at least four years now, starting with his ascent as a prospect to his arrival in the majors. He is the player that has the talent, ability and upside to maybe — MAYBE — be a franchise player. But he is already 25 years old and we have no idea how good he actually is, or if he will even be a good everyday Major Leaguer. Add in the fact he is coming back from a brutal ankle injury and there are just a ton of questions about him. His early production this season has been a fraction of what was expected and hoped for.

I want to focus on him for a bit here because I think there are a few interesting things about his season — and production — to date.

As bad as his overall numbers look, there have still been some extended stretches of positive play. But there was also a 10-game stretch that completely sunk his early season numbers.

After Sunday’s 5-3 win, where Cruz collected two hits including a go-ahead two-run home run in the fifth inning, something stood out about his recent play, and it’s that he has actually been quietly starting to put together a little bit of a hot streak here.

Over his past 12 games he is hitting .310 with an .806 OPS. While that is not All-Star level hitting, it is certainly very good production, and especially at a premium position. His walk to strikeout ratio is still a huge concern, and he is still doing way too much of the latter, but he is getting better.

Overall his season has come down to three different stretches over his first 35 games.

After 13 games he was hitting .298 with a .790 OPS and striking out in over 34 percent of his place appearances. The production was strong, but the strikeouts were a concern.

Then came the 10-game stretch that sabotaged everything and created a ton of questions about where he is as a player and what kind of player he is. During that stretch hit hit a miserable .103 (four hits in 39 at-bats) with a .372 OPS. He was also striking out in literally half of his plate appearances. The production was unspeakably bad and he could not even put the ball in play.

Now over the past 12 games he is up to the aforementioned .310 average and .800 OPS, while his strikeout rate has dropped down to just 28 percent of his plate appearances. That would be one of the lowest strike out rate stretches of his career.

I have a few thoughts on all of this.