Paul Skenes was supposed to be the one guy that was Pirate-proof. The freak of nature that was so good, so talented, so dominant and so polished that not even the most dysfunctional, cursed, and hapless franchise in professional sports could screw him up.
For two years, he was exactly that.
He was the one guy that gave Pirates fans hope. His starts were not just something you looked forward to in the Pirates rotation, they were an event. They felt like a big deal. It wasn’t just his turn to pitch, it was “Paul Skenes day.”
It was something that was worthy of a celebration because there was a good chance you were going to see him dominate, and turn the best hitters in Major League Baseball into minor leaguers.
One of the most electric atmospheres I have ever experienced at PNC Park was his start against the Los Angeles Dodgers as a rookie, when he struck out Shohei Ohtani in the top of the first inning with three straight fastballs, all of them topping 100 mph.
It was a “holy shit” moment.
Even when he wasn’t facing an all-time great, there was still a palpable buzz in every start. Every two-strike count came with a build-up and the anticipation of a strikeout. At times, the strikeout it seemed inevitable. It was usually delivered.
He also seemed to get better and more commanding the deeper he went into his starts.
If there was a frustration that came with all of this, it was the simple fact the Pirates were wasting his greatness. There was nothing that solidified that belief more than the fact they were only 32-22 in games he started through his first two seasons, and only 17-15 in his Cy Young winning season in 2025. That was with him having a sub-2.00 ERA, and pitching at an all-time great level through those first two years.
The lack of winning eventually led to a gradual decrease in excitement and buzz, not to mention attendance when he took the mound. Even through his first nine starts this season, when his ERA was still under 2.00, some of the novelty started to wear off as the team failed to capitalize on this gift it had been given
And then Skenes himself started to wear off.
Since throwing eight shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies on May 12, capping off a dominant run of four consecutive starts where he allowed just three earned runs and 12 hit total in 28 innings, his season has completely gone in the tank.
I attended his start against the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday afternoon, and instead of the excitement and anticipation that existed throughout his first two years, it just had the feel of another mid-week game. There was no buzz. There was no energy. It might as well have been Josh Fogg taking the mound when the game began.
When he walked the first two batters he faced, there was a growing sense of frustration, and even dread as to what we were about to watch that day.
There were even a couple of boos that came in from the sparse crowd.
He finished the day by going just 4.1 innings, allowing three earned runs, and leaving the game with a season ERA of 3.94, barely above the league average. It’s not bad, but it’s not where he needs to be. It is not where the Pirates need him to be.
While the Pirates were able to come back and win thanks to a late surge of home runs from Rafael Flores Jr. and Brandon Lowe, Skenes did nothing to increase confidence in where his game is at the moment.
It was just the fourth time in his past 17 starts that the Pirates actually won.
During that time his ERA is a shocking 5.14, while his velocity and lack of command continue to be obvious issues and talking points.
Everybody has a theory on what is wrong with him or why it is happening.
Let’s talk about some of them.
Theory 1: “He’s saving himself”
This more of a social media/talk radio idea, but there is theory in some circles that Skenes made a business decision this season to reduce stress on his arm. The idea is that he is taking a few MPH off his velocity in an effort try to preserve his health for a big payday from a different, better organization in the future.
This, of course, is an insane theory and the least likely of them all.
For one, professional athletes simply are not wired that way. They want to win. He might have his sights set on pitching for a better team in the future, but he’s still trying to win right now. Pride still takes over for these guys. You still have a job to do.
Second, it doesn’t even make sense. Having a preserved arm isn’t going to help him if he’s pitching like shit for a couple of years to stay healthy. Does anybody really think he can have a couple of pedestrian years while losing velocity and still get a big money contract from somebody? It doesn’t work that way. Performance is still king. It doesn’t even pass the laugh test.
I DO think there might be something to idea that he maybe tried to take something off his fastball to protect his arm so that he could pitch deeper into games. The thinking could have been that if he gets more outs through contact as opposed to working up big pitch counts early in games getting strikeouts, that he might be able to consistently pitch into the seventh or eighth innings.
That might actually make some degree of sense.
But I’m not even sure it’s that, because if that was part of his plan the velocity would still be there when he needed it. He would still be able to reach back in a big moment and blow somebody away with a 101 fastball and get out of a jam.
But the velocity simply isn’t there.
He doesn’t have it right now.
He doesn’t seem capable of getting there.
More importantly, it also hasn’t worked. His pitch counts are getting higher than ever, faster than ever, while his overall effectiveness has plummeted.
This can’t possibly be a thing. I’m not buying it. I refuse to buy it.
Theory 2: The World Baseball Classic screwed him up
This is one that is starting to get some traction, and the thinking is that throwing high-leverage, max-effort innings in March, at a time when starting pitchers are still trying to build themselves up, might have had negative long-term impacts on both his success and health.
It seems logical, but is there any evidence to suggest it’s a thing?
If so, it would also seem logical to assume that it is impacting other pitchers that also pitched in the World Baseball Classic.
So let’s take a look at that.
The table below has the 10 pitchers in Major League Baseball this season that threw the most innings in the WBC, as well as their ERA, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and average fastball velocities in 2025 vs. 2026.
What we are looking for here is a change in overall performance, and perhaps more importantly, a change in velocity.
Is there anything here?
Maybe in terms of overall performance and effectiveness.
But not in terms of velocity.
Red numbers in the change categories are the bad numbers.
I think it’s interesting that outside of Eduardo Rodriguez, every pitcher on the list has seen a drop (and a pretty sharp drop) in their fielding independent pitching numbers.
That number takes into account the things that pitchers have control over (walks, strikeouts and home runs) and are not at the mercy of their defense (balls in play being turned into outs).
It’s a little more hit-and-miss with ERA.
But look at the velocity category.
Nobody’s losing a lot off their fastball. Or anything off their fastball. The only pitchers on the list outside of Skenes that have seen a dip in their velocity are Logan Webb and Cristopher Sanchez, and in both cases it is a very marginal drop. Less than half of a mph for each.
Skenes is the only one with a SHARP drop, losing 1.4 mph off his four-seamer.
That’s a problem. And that’s the eye-opening thing here.
Maybe the WBC innings, as few as it might have been, have impacted these guys in some way with their performance. I can be persuaded on that.
It is not effecting their velocity. That is simply not a thing, and if it is, it is a thing that is, for some reason, only impacting him.
Theory 3: His mechanics are messed up
This is another one that is starting to gain a lot of attention, and I’ve seen two former Major League pitchers talk about it extensively in the past 24 hours.
Curt Schilling has been making a big deal about this on social media, while former Pirates relief pitcher Dan Plesac (remember a guy) went into a similar deep dive on it on Wednesday night.
I am not enough of a pitching mechanics person to have a say on whether or not this is a thing, or to have much of an opinion on why it happened.
Is it a Bill Murphy thing? Did he come in and change his mechanics or delivery?
Did Skenes make a decision to change something for some reason?
Or did he just get sloppy with it?
Or did he just get sloppy with himself?
That leads us into a partial theory that Pirates post-game host Dan Zangrilli introduced a couple of weeks ago when he basically called Skenes a fat slob that wasn’t in shape, comparing him to a Yeti “lumbering around the mound and sucking wind on a hot day,” before later comparing him to a St. Bernard stomping around.
(These are real quotes, by the way; these things were said on the Pirates official flagship radio station after a game, which is both brave of Zangrilli and hilarious.)
Of the first three theories this is the one that is the most sensible, and one that is the most likely.
But is there another more likely scenario?
Possibly.
Theory 4: He’s hurt
If it looks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck…
What are the two biggest red flags for pitcher health?
A sudden, sharp loss of velocity and a loss of command.
What are the two things plaguing Paul Skenes the most right now?
A sudden, sharp loss of velocity and a loss of command.
Maybe he’s not hurt. Maybe it’s a mechanical issue that can be worked out. Maybe that fixes his command. Maybe that makes him more effective and makes him pitch better.
But that probably doesn’t fix the velocity, which again, is simply not there when he needs (and presumably wants it). And that’s why it would not surprise me at all if this season ends (or if his season ends before the team’s season ends) with him seeing a specialist and some bad news following shortly after.
He’s a pitcher. Pitchers get hurt. A lot. And it’s one of the biggest concerns that comes with trying to build your team around starting pitcher. You never know when one of them is going to just miss an entire season, or a significant portion of a season.
I’m not saying he’s definitely hurt. I’m just saying it won’t surprise me if he we find out that there is something wrong physically.
Sometimes the answer is the most obvious answer.
Now, for a few more quick-hit thoughts from around the league, including the new player you are going to love to hate (but have to respect) in Pete Crow-Armstrong, that bizarre Pete Alonso home run that wasn’t, and some great jersey spotting among New York Mets and Detroit Tigers fans.