Talking Baseball: Vol. 26

The Pittsburgh Pirates are better, but how much better? The Detroit Tigers Tarik Skubal dilemma. Can anybody beat the Los Angeles Dodgers?

The motivations behind the “why” remain unclear, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have at least made something of an effort to be an actual, functioning Major League Baseball team for the 2026 season.

Between Brandon Lowe (trade), Ryan O’Hearn (free agency), Marcell Ozuna (free agency), Gregory Soto (free agency) and Jose Urquidy (free agency) the Pirates have added roughly $47 million in payroll this winter. They did that without having to also dump salary elsewhere on the roster, keeping (for now) starting pitcher Mitch Keller and outfielder Bryan Reynolds, their two highest-paid players from a year ago.

They even made a pure baseball trade in dealing from a position of strength to potentially fill a weakness by trading Johan Oviedo to the Boston Red Sox for talented prospect Jhostynxon García.

The Lowe trade was a similar deal in sending Mike Burrows to Tampa, while also getting a couple of intriguing depth players in Jake Mangum (outfielder) and rocket-armed relief pitcher Mason Montgomery.

The payroll is now over $100 million. They are out of the bottom-five and approaching the top-20.

That is still not great. It is not cause for a parade or the purchasing of World Series tickets. It is not worthy of forgiving the past decade of incompetence and penny-pinching. But it is a step.

I am also not going to give them credit for “just missing” on the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Framber Valdez or Eugenio Suarez. I have no doubt they wanted them. They may have made offers to them. They simply wanted them at their price and nothing more. But I will give them some credit for at least doing something to address their biggest issues in a potentially meaningful way. They did more than I expected this winter. This has not been a typical Bob Nutting-Ben Cherington offseason.

This is a team that had the pitching staff to compete in 2025, and it might be even better in 2026. But a staggering lack of offense wasted all of it and sent them to a 71-91 record and another last place finish for Cherington despite having the literal National League Cy Young Award Winner on the roster.

So what happened this offseason?

• Did Nutting and Cherington have some sort of spiritual awakening and just get tired of being publicly mocked and humiliated, both locally and nationally?

• Did Paul Skenes say, hey, shit or get off the pot and do not waste another year of my career?

• Did Major League Baseball give a not-so-friendly nudge to them and say, hey, assholes, you have one of the five-best players in baseball, we know he is going to be there at least a few more years and we would like to see him pitching in big games at some point?

• Did the other Major League owners get tired of watching their luxury tax money and revenue sharing money fund Bob Nutting’s money-printing machine?

Or was it something else? Or a combination of multiple theories here?

Whatever the case may be, the 2026 Pirates look significantly more interesting than the 2025 Pirates and I do think there is at least some reason for optimism.

They are a better team on paper.

The question is how much better, and if that will be enough to get them close to a playoff spot, or perhaps even into a playoff spot.

Contrary to the doom-and-gloom that comes from small market teams in this era of baseball, it has never been easier to make the playoffs than it is right now. The bar has never been lower.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs in 2025 with only 83 wins in the National League. The Tigers made it in the American League with 87 wins.

In 2024 the Kansas City Royals and Tigers both got in with 86 wins, while the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets made the cut in the National League that same year with 89 wins.

The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks got in with 84 wins and reached the World Series.

The 2022 Philadelphia Phillies got in with 87 wins and reached the World Series. That same season Tampa Bay got in with 86 wins.

Since Major League Baseball expanded the playoff field (again) there are consistently teams getting in with win totals in the mid-80s. If you win 84 or 85 games you are at the very least going to be playing meaningful baseball until the very end of September.

That is not a high-bar to reach, and it should not be unattainable for any team in any market. For the 2026 Pirates, we are talking about adding 14-15 wins. That seems like a lot, but they ARE a better team both externally and potentially internally.

Just look at it from an offensive perspective.

A year ago the Pirates had one position player finish with an OPS+ over 100 (100 being a league average hitter) — first baseman Spencer Horwitz.

They added three players that have consistently been over 100 in Lowe, O’Hearn and Ozuna.

Over the past three years Lowe has been 112, 121 and 116. He has never finished with a mark lower than 101 in his career.

O’Hearn has been at 112, 119 and 125 the past three years.

Ozuna has been at 140, 154 and 113 the past three years.

Those are not only upgrades, they are potentially significant upgrades at the plate compared to what the Pirates have been counting on. Keep something in mind: Over the past three years the only Pirates play that had at least 300 plate appearances in a single season and had an OPS+ of at least 120 is Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates added three guys in offseason that are capable of approaching that number or topping it.

I’ve written about this in the past here, but last year’s playoff teams had between four and eight hitters that finished with an OPS+ over 100, and at least one or two over 120.

Horwitz, plus the three additions, would give the Pirates four.

If Reynolds bounces back from his down year and gets back to his normal career levels (and I suspect he will, simply because he has enough of a track record that he deserves some benefit of the doubt) that could potentially give them five.

Combined with the pitching staff, that is a formidable Major League Baseball team.

The wild-cards then become Oneil Cruz and top prospect Konnor Griffin.

At this point I am ready to give up up on Cruz becoming a superstar, but I do not think it is out of the question for him to be a good-to-very good player. Prior to last season he had at least posted OPS+ numbers of 105 and 110 in his two full seasons in the league. If he can give you something in the 110-120 range that is something useful, especially given his speed and power combination.

Griffin is the guy that will determine what their ceiling is this season and in the near future. I do not know if the Pirates will send him straight from Double-A to the Major Leagues to open the season, but he will probably be here at some point near mid-season. He is the top prospect in baseball. If he becomes the player everybody expects him to become and hopes he become, that is a franchise-changer. That is the guy that could potentially bring everything together.

Those are still some big “ifs” that have to go right. But with their offseason additions the Pirates at least have a little bit of an expectation and less risk than previous seasons. Going into the 2025 season pretty much everything was an “if.”

If this goes right.

If this guy hits.

If that guy develops more.

If that guy’s season was not a fluke and he hits like that again.

If those guys take a big step forward.

The more “ifs” you have, the more likely it is a bunch of them will not go your way. They at least have some proven Major League contributors that offer a little more certainty. You know more of what to expect. That makes it easier to project and predict what they can do.

The starting pitching should be really good and has the potential to be outstanding.

The bullpen is always going to be volatile, which is simply the nature of the beast, but they have some big arms out there.

The offense should be better, and perhaps significantly better.

The biggest concern that could undo things is this might be the worst defensive team in baseball. That could make things a little problematic and even frustrating at times.

Even so, I think as they are currently constructed 84-86 wins should be a reasonable expectation. If they can find a third baseman before the end of March that could potentially put them into legitimate playoff range. That is not wishful thinking. That is what the expectation should be.

Now let’s talk a little more about some other big stories around the league, including the Tarik Skubal situation in Detroit, are we all just wasting our time before the inevitable Los Angeles Dodgers championship and more.

Let’s talk about it.