Talking Baseball: Vol. 25
Talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates addition of second baseman Brandon Lowe as well as their offseason overall. What they have done so far in terms of roster moves. What else they still need to do.
The Pittsburgh Pirates rumored interest and offer to free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber did not really do much for me. Not because I did not want Schwarber on the Pirates — on the contrary, I would have crawled over broken glass to get his bat in the middle of their lineup — but simply because it just never seemed like a realistic or serious effort.
I have no doubt they were interested in him.
I truly believe they made an offer.
But making an offer to a player, and having the type of necessary interest and making an offer that will get accepted are two very different things.
The Pirates would have absolutely signed Schwarber at their price.
But their price was never going to be close enough. It was not.
None of that was a surprise. My concern at that point was going to be that they would simply say, “hey, we tried!” and then mail in the rest of the offseason without doing anything else significant. They could hang their “made an offer to Kyle Schwarber” banner, make some inconsequential trade or two, and then enter this season with largely the same lineup that they played a year ago.
That is what they do every offseason. That seemed to be the direction this offseason was heading as well.
That, however, changed on Friday when the Pirates acquired second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and relief pitcher Mason Montgomery from the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-team trade that only saw them give up pitcher Mike Burrows.
This is something that gets my attention. This is a valid move. This is a legitimate move. This is a significant addition, and perhaps the most serious Major League addition that has happened in the Ben Cherington general manager era.
Lowe is by no means a superstar. He is not quite on the level of Schwarber as an impact bat. There are also some flaws, ranging from the fact he is in a contract year, to the fact he might as well take the field with a frying pan attached to his hand instead of a glove. He is not perfect.
What he is, is a bat. A very good bat. A left-handed bat in a stadium that should be built for left-handed pull hitters with even an ounce of power to their game. He would have arguably been the Pirates’ best bat a year ago. His 31 home runs would have led the team by a wide margin, while his 116 OPS+ would have trailed only the 118 mark put up by first baseman Spencer Horwitz in his half season of play. Lowe has been an All-Star two times, has hit at least 20 home runs in each of his past four full seasons and twice went over 30 home runs. On an anecdotal level, American League East fans from Baltimore to Toronto spent Friday on social media celebrating the fact he is now out of their division. That is high praise.
Basically, there is nothing to be critical about here with this trade. Especially when they received a potential fourth outfielder (Mangum) and a relief pitcher with absolutely filthy stuff that just needs to harness his control (Montgomery). Combined with the free agent signing of Gregory Soto, they have added some power left-handed arms to their bullpen.
I like Burrows. He impressed in 2025, but the Pirates’ best chance of adding potential impact bats was always going to come from trading from their pitching depth.
The Burrows-for-Lowe trade was the second such move the Pirates made this offseason.
They began the offseason by trading Johan Oviedo to the Boston Red Sox for outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia, another move that I liked. Moving Oviedo is a bit of a risk because he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, but they were already playing without him the past two years. Injuries have limited him to just seven games since the start of the 2024 season, and that has to be a concern. Garcia was also one of the Red Sox top prospects and a top-100 prospect in baseball. He might be the highest-ceiling prospect Cherington has acquired in a trade with the Pirates. The biggest potential hurdle here is he tends to swig-and-miss and the Pirates have to show they can develop a young, raw, talented power hitter. They do not have the best track record of doing so.
The point is, though, they recognized their need for bats, recognized the starting pitching depth they have, and worked to deal from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness.
Again, I have no complaints with any of this.
The only thing I will say right now is they can not stop here. They have to do more. They can not just be content with Lowe, Mangum, Garcia and a couple of relief pitchers and think that is going to be enough. They need at least one or two more bats in this lineup.
The problem with the lineup as currently constructed is there are still too many “ifs” here.
IF Bryan Reynolds has a bounce back year.
IF Oneil Cruz figures it all out and puts all of his talent together.
IF prized prospect Konnor Griffin is ready to play in the Major Leagues and can succeed as a 19/20-year-old.
IF Spencer Horwitz repeats what he did a year ago.
I feel confident Reynolds bounces back. I could see Horwitz duplicating what he did a year ago. Griffin might be too good for the Pirates player development system to ruin. Cruz …. he is the wild-card.
But even if Reynolds bounces back, Horwitz repeats and Lowe continues to hit like he has, that is only three above average hitters in the lineup that you can realistically and confidently pencil in for an OPS+ over 100.
By comparison, here is what every playoff team had in their lineup involving players that had at least 250 at-bats:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7
Chicago Cubs: 8
Milwaukee Brewers: 8
Cincinnati Reds: 3
San Diego Padres: 5
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
Toronto Blue Jays: 6
Boston Red Sox: 8
Cleveland Guardians: 2
Detroit Tigers: 8
New York Yankees: 8
Seattle Mariners: 5
Other than the Reds and Guardians every playoff team had at least five above average hitters in their lineup.
The Pirates, even with Lowe, would have had two. Reynolds returning to being Reynolds gets them three. Maybe Griffin and/or Cruz can get them to four or five.
But again, we are dealing with the “ifs.”
The best way to take the “ifs” out of the equation is to just keep getting more good, proven players.
They still have a huge hole at third base. There is no reason why Eugenio Suarez should not be on their radar. Will he sign here? That is another question. But if you were willing to try for Schwarber, you should try here.
They still have big questions at catcher. Joey Bart and Henry Davis are not going to hit, and Bart is not actually good at playing the position. Rafael Flores came over from the New York Yankees in the David Bednar trade at the deadline, but he is far from a sure thing. He could also be a potential first base option.
They have nobody that looks to be a serious designated hitter, unless they use Lowe or Reynolds there at times. If it is the former, that probably means Nick Gonzales gets another chance (no thanks) or Nick Yorke gets a chance (again, no thanks). If it is the latter, that opens the door for another potential outfielder.
Realistically speaking they probably only have two or three more years to try and win with Paul Skenes before he prices himself out of their budget within the payroll. This is their window. They should be doing everything in their power to win with him in that window.
They have the starting pitching staff, especially if the trades of Oviedo and Burrows mean Mitch Keller is staying. They have intriguing arms in the bullpen. They have a couple of bats, and added a significant one this offseason. They need more. Lowe is a nice step. They need more steps.