Talking Baseball: Vol. 22

I went to a New York Yankees game, I have been thinking a lot about Moneyball, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are wasting Paul Skenes in a way few other starting pitchers have ever been wasted.

Moneyball has been on my mind quite a bit lately. Actually, that’s not an entirely fair statement. Moneyball is USUALLY on my mind — to some degree — during baseball season. The book had me so captivated when I initially bought it that I read it cover-to-cover in one day. As a movie, it’s one of my all-time favorite baseball movies. The line “if he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?” continues to live in my head every time a prospect or player is talked up. It’s not just a great movie line, it’s simply a great baseball line and one that a lot of baseball people should probably reference more often.

But what really keeps the story at the front of my brain is the way the book and movie have been interpreted, and the way the subject matters have been used, misunderstood and argued about for two decades now.

One of the biggest criticisms of the movie itself is how they never made any mention of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Eric Chavez or Miguel Tejada as still being a part of the Oakland A’s, and how those guys were the driving force behind the team’s continued success.

If you’re looking at the book — or the movie — from the perspective of “Scott Hatteberg and analytics are the only reason the A’s won,” that would be a valid criticism.

But that’s not the point of the book, the movie or the story being told.

The story isn’t about the players the A’s had coming back.

It was about the players that were not coming back, and the front office’s ability to try and replace them on a shoestring budget against teams with more money to spend on players.

The A’s were still going to be a pretty good team. But by losing Jason Giambi (literally the best player in the American League at that time), Johnny Damon (a pretty good centerfielder) and Jason Isringhausen (a top-tier closer and relief pitcher) in free agency for no return they should have been a worse team than they were the year before.

That shouldn’t be a controversial statement. It isn’t a controversial statemnt. It’s a factual statement. Those three players alone combined for 14 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) the previous season! 14! Thats a lot, man. Giambi alone accounted for more than nine! Only losing him should have chopped off a solid chunk of wins, even with the big-three pitchers returning and even with Chavez and Tejada still being there.

Keep in mind, this was before the expanded playoffs we have today. Only four teams in each league made the playoffs. A drop of 10-15 wins from one season to the next could have been devastating to their playoff chances. This was during an era where teams with 85-90 wins routinely missed the playoffs. Today, 86 wins can get you in the playoffs and lead you to the World Series.

It was a problem, and it should have terrified the A’s.

And it was the problem Billy Beane (Brad Pitt) kept trying to emphasize to his staff in the scouting scenes.

We can’t replace this guy.

And they couldn’t.

That led to the solution of trying to recreate him, along with the other players they were losing, in aggregate.

That led to them trying to piece together their island of misfit toys on the edges of the roster to take advantage of undervalued — but still useful — skills and talents in baseball. At the time, it was a focus on simply getting on base even if the player had no other redeeming talents or value.

Instead of losing more games following the departure of three high-level players, they actually won more games and tied for the best record in the American League (tied with the team that actually signed Giambi). Whatever you think of the book, the movie, the A’s front office, their management style, analytics or anything else you have to at least acknowledge that was a wildly impressive accomplishment that NOBODY anticipated at the time. It’s re-writing history to go back and suggest that everybody just assumed the A’s would be as good after losing those players. The expectation was that they would take some sort of a hit as a result.

Having said that … there is something in the movie, and the way the story is interpreted, that SHOULD make you angry.

And it’s the way owners took the A’s analytical approach and tried to bastardize that into a justification for being cheap and not wanting to spend more money.

Toward the end of the movie, when Beane is interviewing for the Boston Red Sox job, John Henry is going on about “wins per dollar” and that every team that doesn’t tear down their team and rebuild it with the A’s model is stupid.

THAT’S the problem.

THAT’S the pandora’s box Moneyball unleashed on baseball.

It wasn’t the idea that bunting might not be the optimal strategy, or that on-base percentage is more important than batting average, or that analytics can help you field a better team that ruined the sport or the league.

It was deep-pocketed owners (which they ALL are) thinking they had to operate like the Oakland A’s that made things worse for the overwhelming majority of fans in baseball.

You’re the Boston Red Sox. You’re one of the teams in baseball that has more money than God. You shouldn’t be concerning yourself with wins per dollar.

It’s not like that was the driving force behind the A’s approach. The A’s front office WANTED to keep Giambi. They WANTED to keep Damon. They WANTED to spend more money.

But because their owner was a cheap bastard it wasn’t an option for them and they had to adapt. So they did. That son of a bitch made them beg to find a little extra money just to trade for Ricardo freaking Rincon.

And now, 20 years later, every move that is made in baseball is put under a microscope on whether or not it’s smart money being spent or if the player is worth it. Is it a good value? How are the wins per dollar?

Brother, who cares?

I understand analyzing salaries and contracts in the other three sports given the nature of the salary cap. Whether or not you agree with the idea of a salary cap is irrelevant — it’s the reality of those leagues and something that teams have to contend with.

Baseball has no such limitation on player salaries. The billionaires running these teams can spend whatever they want. Their own cap, and their own budget, is what they decide it to be and nothing more. Paying a player $15 million per season instead of $10 million per season should not be on the radar of fans. It should not even be on the radar of a general manager as long as their owner gives them the money to spend.

I thought of this again this past week when I had the pleasure of sitting in the right field bleachers at Yankee Stadium for a Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays game.

It is always a fascinating experience to attend a real Major League game that has meaning and fans that are engaged and emotionally invested in the outcome. If you ever want to get a sense for how much Bob Nutting has destroyed baseball in Pittsburgh, catch a game in Philadelphia, or New York, or Boston and compare the atmosphere. It’s just … different. It took less than 10 pitches in the top of the first inning for fans to be mother fucking Anthony Volpe and screaming about how much he sucked.

Not an exaggeration, either. It was ANGER.

It was also eye-opening because if Anthony Volpe played for the Pirates we would probably be looking at their shortstop situation as being pretty settled. Fun fact: Volpe would have the highest WAR of any position player on the Pirates this season, and as a guy that averages 2-3 WAR per season would have been one of the best players on the team the past few years.

Just a night-and-day difference across the board in terms of expectations and passion. It was actually exciting to witness.

(I am going somewhere with this, stay with me.)

At one point in the game a discussion broke out between the early 20s Yankees fans sitting in front of us, and my brother, nephew and friend Jayson (check out his newsletter and all of his writing — he is good) as to whether or not this year’s mid-season Yankee collapse was worse than last year’s mid-season Yankee collapse (keep in mind … the Yankees were in the World Series a year ago. It’s all about perspective and expectations).

As an unbiased third-party observer, I chimed in and said that the presence of Juan Soto on last year’s team made them a better team, and for that reason alone last year’s mid-season slide was worse. The expectations were higher. This team isn’t as good on paper. Less should be expected this year.

It was that comment that sent everybody down a Juan Soto path.

The group in front of us argued that Soto wasn’t worth the money and didn’t fit into budget, which resulted in Jayson angrily yelling “fuck the budget!”

That was followed by me screaming “YES! Fuck the budget!”

My argument at the time of the free agency pursuit was that you’re the New York Yankees. You have to start acting like it again. While the Yankees still spend a lot of money, there is no question they have capped themselves at times in recent years and lost out on some players that could have — and perhaps should have — been Yankees.

Why weren’t you in Bryce Harper?

Why isn’t Manny Machado a Yankee today?

How do you allow the little brother team across town to outbid you for a player in the prime of his career that you want?

Yeah Cody Bellinger’s good, but he’s not Juan Soto. I don’t care if Soto is a butcher in the outfield, he was built to play in Yankee Stadium and hit in front of Aaron Judge.

George Steinbrenner would have never allowed those things to happen. Shit, he’s the guy that poached Giambi away from the A’s.

If you’re a Yankees fan the “B” word (budget) should never enter your brain when discussing the roster. You shouldn’t care about Hal Steinbrenner’s money.

If you’re a Pirates fan you shouldn’t be looking at the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade or David Bednar trades through the lens of “well that just opens up some money to spend this offseason.”

No it doesn’t! It’s just saving Bob Nutting more of his money by keeping his payroll stagnant.

Not paying Soto and replacing him with Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt didn’t make the Yankees a better and more balanced team. It made them a worse team. Framing it any other way is carrying Hal’s water bucket for him.

This is the pox that Moneyball has put on baseball and the discourse around it.

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Paul Skenes with the Pirates is nothing like Jacob DeGrom with the Mets …. it is worse

Paul Skenes pitched another absolute gem for the Pittsburgh Pirates this week, shutting out the Cincinnati Reds over six innings and lowering his ERA to 1.94 for the season, significantly lower than any other pitcher in baseball. He is 45 starts into his career over two seasons and still has 1.95 ERA overall. It is comical how dominant he is.

It is also comical as to how much the Pirates are wasting his brilliance and dominance.

The natural parallel that gets drawn here is the way the New York Mets wasted the career of Jacob DeGrom throughout his prime, where he would go entire seasons with an ERA in the low-2’s (or lower) and barely scratch out a winning record because he had no run support.

The problem with that comparison is the Skenes situation with the Pirates is actually worse.

Significantly worse.

It is honestly not even close, and it makes me angry that it is even brought up as a legitimate comparison.

Let’s talk about that.