Sleeper Stanley Cup contenders, playoff formats and loser points

The NHL's playoff format could play a big role in determining which teams go far in the playoffs, and perhaps even which teams reach the Stanley Cup Final.

At this point in the season we have a pretty good idea as to who the top Stanley Cup contenders are and which teams probably have the best chance to win it all.

The top-three teams in the Central Division (Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild) are serious contenders.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a contender.

The Carolina Hurricanes are always a contender even if they still have that “prove it” aspect hanging over them when it comes to the playoffs.

Are we considering the Buffalo Sabres a serious contender at this point? Based on the standings and their overall vibes, probably. I am not quite ready to buy them in that regard just yet, but I imagine a lot of people are. And that’s fine. They are good, they are fun, and the playoffs will be better with them and their crowd in it. If you want to view them as a Stanley Cup contender, I will not fight you on it. I can come around on this. I probably will.

Those are the five or six teams that clearly stand out above the pack.

But is there anybody below them in the standings that could be a potential sleeper team to go on a deep run in the playoffs, or perhaps even win the whole thing? Maybe!

The one team that I can see starting to get a lot of hype (and it is starting to get a lot of hype) is the Utah Mammoth, and it is not hard to see a scenario where they go on a deep run. A lot of things are falling into place for them.

For one, it is just a really good team, and probably one that is better than its record indicates.

They are young, they are fast, they play at a great pace, they have really good depth and they have been outstanding when it comes to controlling play when it is 5-on-5. Entering play on Friday they are a top-six team in pretty much every major puck possession and scoring chance metric during even-strength play.

• Shot attempt share: 52.9 percent (fifth in NHL)

• Expected goal share: 52.6 percent (sixth in NHL)

• Scoring chance share: 51.9 percent (sixth in NHL)

• High-danger scoring chance share: 53.1 percent (sixth in NHL)

The potential red flags with them are the fact they do not have the type of superstar talent at the top of the lineup that championship teams tend to have, and when it comes to actual goals scored they are only middle of the pack. But while they lack a true “superstar,” they are very balanced in the scoring, they control the pace of games and they generally keep teams off the scoreboard. There is a lot to be said for that.

But what I really like about their chances is the potential path they may have in the playoffs.

As of Friday they seem pretty locked into the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They are not going to catch the top-three teams in the Central Division, and they have a six-point cushion over the second wild-card team (currently the Los Angeles Kings).

That means they are very, very likely to find themselves in the Pacific Division bracket of the Western Conference playoffs where their first-round opponent would be the winner of that division.

(The top division winner plays the second wild-card team, and that is almost certainly going to be the winner of the Central Division).

Whether that is the Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights or Edmonton Oilers, I really like Utah’s chances against any of them. I would go as far as to say I would consider them favorites against any of those teams right now.

Heck, there is a very good chance they actually finish with more points than the winner of that division.

Every single one of those teams is severely flawed.

Anaheim has great young forward talent, but struggles to defend.

Vegas probably has the best roster on paper when it comes to its skaters when everybody is healthy, but it has no goaltending.

Edmonton has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the rest of the team around them is absolutely terrible, including their goaltending. Draisaitl is also currently out of the lineup, and while the Oilers do expect him back for the playoffs there is a strong likelihood he is not 100 percent when they begin.

That is the likely path that Utah would have in the playoffs. You do not have to squint hard to picture a scenario where they can get through two of those teams to reach the Western Conference Final. That is where the competition would dramatically increase, but that point anything can happen.

This is also where the discussion on the NHL’s Playoff format comes into play. Because they dumped the No. 1 through 8 format and went to a divisional format, the division you play in, and what wild-card spot you get, will dramatically impact the potential path you have to take.

Dallas and Minnesota are two of the five best teams in the NHL. They will have to play each other in the first round because they are not only in the same division, but in the same division as the one team better than them. The winner will likely have to play Colorado in the second round. That is an absolute gauntlet just because of the division they play in, and it guarantees that two of the top-three teams in the conference are not going to make the Western Conference Final.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Division teams, and whatever team gets into their bracket in the top wild-card spot, are going to have a dramatically easier path.

There is really only one person that is fine with this possibility, and it is the only person whose opinion matters — Commissioner Gary Bettman.

Despite a very public outcry and desire from fans and players to return to the 1 vs. 8 conference format, he is dug in with absolutely zero desire to even consider a change.

He loves the idea of rivalries, even if they are forced and not created organically.

He also does not like to admit he is wrong, or that an idea he had is potentially a bad idea.

So he is going to see this through no matter what anybody else thinks, and no matter how much everybody else hates it.

Let’s talk more about that format, what the playoffs could potentially look like with a different seeding system, a few more sleeper teams and also the impact of the NHL’s “loser point” and whether or not we are looking at it correctly.