Revisiting three NHL offseason trades that have worked better than expected
We are talking Josh Doan, John Gibson and Trevor Zegras.
The Buffalo Sabres might be the most interesting team in the NHL right now. They began the season doing what they have done for the better part of the past 15 years — losing. And losing a lot. In early December they finally made the decision to fire general manager Kevyn Adams, and for some reason the team has simply not stopped winning since, going 13-2-0 over their past 15 games entering play on Tuesday.
Keep in mind, this run was not inspired by a coaching change or a big roster move. It was a general manager change, which should have no short-term impact on the team on the ice other than to serve as some sort of wake-up call to the players. It is actually kind of hilarious how it has all played out here.
Overall, from a big picture perspective, my opinion of the Sabres remains what it was at the time of Adams’ firing. There is an ownership problem here that is very real, and it is going to take a lot of luck and shrewd hockey people to consistently overcome that.
They have not always had much of either.
We also need to see if this recent success is a turning point for the team and a sustainable recipe for success, or if it is just a random blip in the middle of another forgettable season.
But for all of the questionable moves Adams made during his tenure as the Sabres’ general manager, and for all of the questions that still remain with the roster, he did make one move this offseason that he seemed to get right in a big way.
It was the JJ Peterka trade to Utah.
In exchange for Peterka the Sabres received defenseman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan.
While Peterka has been very good with the Mammoth and is on track to do what he typically does (score close to 30 goals, 60 points), the return for Buffalo has worked out far better than anybody could have hoped. Certainly better than I anticipated.
Kesselring has been limited to just 16 games due to injury, but is expected to return to the lineup soon. He is a viable NHL defenseman and will be solid depth for them. But the prize of the trade so far has been Doan, who has broken out in a huge way with the Sabres.
Not only is he scoring and producing offense at a similar pace as Peterka, but he has also been a lock-down defensive player and one of Buffalo’s most impactful two-way forwards.
Among Sabres players that have logged at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time this season his team ranks:
Expected goals against per 60 minutes: 1st
Expected goals share: 2nd
Scoring chances against per 60 minutes: 3rd
High-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes: 3rd
If you expand that out to all forwards across the NHL, he is pushing play and defending at an elite rate. Among 197 forwards that have played at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time he is 35th in expected goals against per 60 minutes and fifth in overall expected goal share.
He has been sensational, and the trade has been a season-changer for the Sabres.
Adams did an objectively poor job in Buffalo, and my overall, big-picture thoughts on the Sabres remain the same from an ownership perspective. But the Sabres are back in the playoff race and Doan has been one of their biggest contributors.
Peterka is a good player, and has been a good player for Utah. He will almost certainly continue to be a good player for Utah in the future. I am not surprised by any of that. Nobody should be. It has worked out exactly as they hoped it would and probably the way everybody outside of Utah expected it would.
But Doan has given the Sabres an element they severely lacked, while Kesselring could tip the scales in their favor even more when he gets back in the lineup. Given the initial reaction to the trade, it has worked out significantly better than expected from a Sabres perspective.
A win-win trade for everybody? Certainly looks that way.
It is not the only offseason trade around the NHL that has panned out better than expected for at least one team.
Let’s talk about a few more.
John Gibson is finding his game with Detroit Red Wings again
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