Ranking the NHL's long-term contracts signed this offseason from safest to riskiest

Some teams made safe investments this offseason. Others decided to take a big chance.

So far this offseason there have been 27 contracts signed in the NHL for five years or more. Some of them have been in unrestricted free agency. One has been in restricted free agency. Several others have been long-term extensions to keep a player with their current team.

When it comes to the unrestricted free agent signings, there is always a massive risk built in with that, and the recent history over the past decade (and beyond) is not exactly promising for how they will turn out. A significant number of those deals end in buyouts or trades, and I figure the same will be true with a lot of the deals signed this offseason, even if they provide some short-term value.

Will it be enough short-term value to outweigh the long-term risk? That’s the dangerous game teams play in pursuit of a Stanley Cup.

The safest moves tend to be the ones that lock in younger, core players through their prime years. And there have been some great values in that regard.

So let’s take a look at all of them and rank them from the safest deals to the riskiest.

This is not necessarily ranking them in terms of quality of player, production or even if the contract is good or bad. It’s not even necessarily a look at overall value or potential. It’s simply an assessment of risk, the chances of it becoming a failure, and how likely a team is to immediately (or eventually) regret the contract.

Ranking is in order from lowest risk to highest risk.

---

1. Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils

• Contract: Five years, $58.5 million, $11.7 million salary cap, 10.3 percent of cap at signing

This, in my opinion, is the safest long-term contract of the offseason, and I am not even sure it is particularly close. There is minimal risk here both short-term and long-term for the Devils, and it’s almost certainly going to be a good value.

Hischier is a proven talent, a consistent producer and a legitimate top-line center in the NHL. He may not contend for Art Ross Trophies, but he scores enough to play a top-line role, drives possession, is an outstanding defensive player and is still on the right side of 30, just now entering his age 28 season. It’s only a five-year deal so there is little risk of his play or production falling off a cliff during the duration of the contract, and it still leaves him in a situation where he might be able to get one more big decent-sized contract in his career.

Everybody wins here.

Predicted outcome: Success.

2. Ivan Demidov, Montreal Canadiens

• Contract: Eight years, $73.2 million, $9.15 million salary cap, 8.1 percent of salary cap at signing

Demidov looks like another rising star on a team full of young, rising stars. They now have all of them signed long-term for what should end up being below-market value contracts, especially in an increasing cap environment. Sensational business by the Canadiens to get Demidov, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovsky, Noah Dobson and Jakub Dobes signed long-term for such good value.

The bonus here isn’t just the reality that you keep your best, core players, but now you have serious salary cap flexibility in the future to really add impact players to your lineup around the core.

That is what helps take a team from “on-the-rise contender” to “Championship-level team.”

Demidov doesn’t have the track record of most of the players on this list given that he has only played one full season in the NHL, but the combination of the age, talent and production as a rookie is highly encouraging.

Predicted outcome: Success

3. Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks

• Contract: Five years, $90 million, $18 million salary cap, 17.3 percent of salary cap at time of signing

The Ducks did not actually sign Carlsson to this contract, but they had to match it. Carlsson signed the deal as a restricted free agent offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers in their attempt to poach away a young, No. 1 center to become a potential cornerstone of their rebuild.

It was a smart risk.

It was a good effort.

It just did not work.

The Ducks had no choice but to match the offer because there was no way four first-round picks, likely to be in the middle of the first round or later, were ever going to provide the same value that Carlsson will.

The risk here is the reality that Carlsson is now the highest paid player in the NHL on a yearly basis, and he’s simply not the best player in the NHL.

Objectively speaking, he is going to be overpaid as part of this deal and I’m really not even sure that is up for debate. That does not necessarily make it a bad contract. Or an overly risky one. Not all overpayments are created equal. The only question is how much is he going to be overpaid, and will it be enough for the Ducks to care?

As long as he continues his current path and continues to emerge as a No. 1 center (and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that is in question), it’s the type of overpayment that’s not really going to hurt you. If you’re going to overpay, do it for the players at the top of your lineup that are going to make a significant impact. Carlsson will make that sort of impact. He’s only 21 years old, already developing into a top-line scorer, and an advanced two-way, possession driver for his age.

I’m willing to overpay that.

It’s overpaying the players that have shown no ability to play that role that carries significant risk.

It’s overpaying the players at the bottom of the lineup that becomes a problem for teams.

Predicted outcome: Very expensive success

4. Brandt Clarke, Los Angeles Kings

• Contract: Five years, $37 million, $7.4 million salary cap, 7.1 percent of salary cap at signing

Ken Holland made some really questionable investments in his first year as Kings general manager, but he hit a home run here in getting Clarke signed to a long-term deal.

He is still only 23 years old, has improved every year he has been in the NHL, took on a bigger role this past season and continued to produce good results (both offensively and in terms of driving possession). His contract is comparable to the deals signed by Simon Nemec and Pavel Mintyukov this offseason (we will get to them), but he’s already a better player than both and carries less long-term risk than both.

Predicted outcome: Success

5. Zach Benson, Buffalo Sabres

• Contract: Seven years $52.5 million, $7.5 million salary cap, 7.2 percent of salary cap at signing

The Sabres offseason has seen them mostly subtract from the roster, which is a little bit of a concern going into the season, but they did manage to get a long-term core piece locked in with the Benson contract.

This guy is going to be a pain in the ass of the Eastern Conference for a long-time, and rapidly become one of the most hated players in the Conference. And I mean that as a compliment in the best possible way. Doesn’t have the best size, but plays a fearless, relentless style of hockey that makes him an effective two-way pest that can also score.

His offense took a big step forward this season (56-point pace over 82 games) and he is still only entering his age 21 season. This has a chance to be one of the better value contracts in the NHL. Not just among the ones signed this season, but overall among all players.

Predicted outcome: Success

6. Mavrik Bourque, Nashville Predators