Rangers, Jets, Sabres among teams that have missed the boat this offseason
Maybe they can still catch it before it gets too far out of reach.
Some NHL teams have already managed to get better this offseason on paper.
Others have tried to get better but might end up ultimately failing by going after the wrong players.
Then there are the teams that have completely missed the boat so far, and still have some big questions to ask themselves over the next few weeks and months.
Let’s talk about three of them — the New York Rangers, Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres.
New York Rangers
On one hand, it is difficult to be overly critical of a team that just finished with the best record in the NHL and reached the Eastern Conference Final for the second time in three years.
It is clearly a good team with some very real strengths that can take them a long way.
They are not in any real danger of missing the playoffs this season unless Igor Shesterkin falls into the Springfield Mystery Spot or Artemi Panarin’s production suddenly falls off a cliff for some reason.
They are good.
The roster is, for the most part, really good.
They have a good coach.
They will continue to be good for the foreseeable future.
Despite all of that, it is also really easy to be overly critical of the Rangers because we have seen this movie from them before, they seem like they might be falling into the same trap of complacency that has limited their ceiling for the better part of the 2010s and 2020s. It is the trap where they have a franchise goalie (whether it be Henrik Lundqvist or Shesterkin) that masks their flaws and tricks them into thinking they are better than they actually are, or that they don’t need to actually try to keep getting better.
Because, hey, if they won this many games and went this far doing it this way, why won’t it work again the exact same way next season?
As good as the Rangers were in 2023-24, there is no guarantee this roster is going to produce results that good again next season in the regular season or playoffs.
It is almost a certainty they will win fewer games in the regular season, and the playoffs are always a completely different monster. Maybe Shesterkin gets hot. Maybe he doesn’t. Maybe they run into a hotter goalie.
It is also no secret as to what their flaws are, and they are significant flaws when it comes to being a legitimate Stanley Cup team.
So far none of them have been meaningfully addressed.
As good as Shesterkin is (and he is GREAT), as dominant as the Rangers power play is (and it can be absolutely mesmerizing), the harsh reality is that their 5-on-5 play is not on the same level as championship teams, and it has not been for quite some time. Break it down into whatever segment of games you want from last season, their 5-on-5 expected goal numbers and scoring chances numbers were average at their best, and just plain bad at their worst.
Full season numbers?
They were 16th in 5-on-5 goal differential, 22nd in expected goals share and 18th in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
Over the final 25 games of the regular season, covering most of the post-trade deadline games?
They were 19th in goal 5-on-5 goal differential, 20th in expected goal share and 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
In the playoffs?
They were eighth (out of 16) in 5-on-5 goal differential, 14th out of 16 in expected goal share and 13th out of 16 in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
Teams that win the Stanley Cup are typically near the top of the NHL in those categories.
The Rangers were able to cruise through a Washington team that was objectively one of the worst playoff teams in the salary cap era, used their power play and special teams to outlast Carolina and then ran into a Florida buzzsaw that not only exposed their flaws, but mostly kicked the shit out of them in the process.
Sure, you could write that off as Florida being the best team in hockey and being able to make a lot of teams look bad. That would be a fair point because Florida is great. But that mindset is also going to get you right back in the same situation next offseason because Florida is the type of team you have to get through and be better than if you want to win it all.
The Rangers are at the point in this process where they should be the ones doing that to teams. They simply do not do that to teams, even when they win.
Their response to all of that this offseason has been to waive Barclay Goodrow (the correct move), trade for Reilly Smith (an okay, even if unspectacular move) and mostly keep everything else the same.
The biggest change has to start on defense where they simply need to become more mobile and do a better job moving the puck out of their own zone. They need at least one, and maybe two more puck-movers in that group. Florida’s ability to beat the Rangers in that area was a significant part of the Eastern Conference Final going the way it did, and so far the Rangers haven’t done anything to address it. At least not externally.
They have reportedly tried to move Jacob Trouba (also the correct move — and one I did not think they would even attempt) but have been tied down by his no-trade protections and (I am guessing) his cap-crushing salary that few teams will actually want.
Maybe it is something that can be fixed internally — at least in part — with a player like Zac Jones, who not only needs a bigger role, but probably should have already had one by now. He has the skills that exactly fit what the Rangers should be looking for and desperately need on their defense.
Maybe they can still move Trouba (even if it seems unlikely at this point) and make another trade to bring in somebody else (the free agent market on defense is pretty much gone at this point).
Perhaps they move on from Ryan Lindgren, or at least reduce his role, after he took a significant step backwards this season and only served as an anchor that held back Adam Fox when they were paired together (Fox had a 46.3 expected goal share with Lindgren during the season; 68.8 without him).
Whatever they decide or figure out in the coming months, if they go back into next season with Trouba and Lindgren playing major, top-four minutes they are again going to spend too much time in their own zone defending, putting too much of the weight on Shesterkin’s shoulders to cover for it, and not doing enough to maximize what they can do during 5-on-5 play offensively.
They will still win a lot of games in the regular season. They might even get agonizingly close in the playoffs. But it is not likely to end with a parade.
Winnipeg Jets
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