Random thoughts as the Stanley Cup Playoffs get into the second round

The Rangers, the Oilers, and more!

We still have the Vegas Golden Knights “Better Luck Next Year” to get to from the first round (it is coming tomorrow) but I wanted to talk about some other happenings in the Stanley Cup Playoffs right now.

Let’s go.

1. The New York Rangers are unique

Over the past couple of weeks I have (unintentionally, mind you) rattled the cages of New York Rangers fans on Twitter for a couple of takes on the way their team plays, and why it gives me some pause with them when it comes to actually winning the Stanley Cup.

It’s not unfair to say they have some flaws at 5-on-5, especially as it relates to their ability to score goals.

They finished the regular season 21st in the NHL at 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, and were still only 20th over the final 25 games of the regular season, even after adding Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg at the trade deadline.

The bulk of their offense comes through special teams. And to be fair, their power play is an absolute monster. It’s arguably the best non-Edmonton power play in the NHL, and sometimes it looks even better than what the Oilers are doing. It has completely swung their second round series against Carolina upside down with the Rangers owning a 4-0 goals advantage on the power play, while also adding a shorthanded goal for a 5-0 special teams advantage. In a series where literally all three games have been decided by a single goal, including two in overtime, that is an obvious series-changer.

New York scored two power play goals in each of the first two games, including the Game 2 overtime winner, and used a shorthanded goal to completely swing momentum in Game 3.

Obviously special teams is a big part of the game, and those wins still count just as much as any other win.

What has given me pause with the Rangers as a potential champion is that teams that are overly dependent on special teams to provide offense don’t typically win the Stanley Cup, or even get to the Stanley Cup Final. That’s not a criticism. That’s not being a hater. That’s just… reality. Or has at least been reality over the past 15 years up until this season. As you get deeper into the playoffs, whistles get put away, power plays become less frequent, and you end up facing better and better teams with better special teams of their own and better goaltending.

In what is admittedly a very small sample size of just seven playoff games, the Rangers have scored only 14 of their 26 goals during 5-on-5 play. That is around 53 percent of them.

Nine of their goals (over 32 percent) have come on the power play.

Going back to the 2008-09 playoffs, only two out of 30 teams have made the Stanley Cup Final scoring less than 60 percent of their playoff goals during 5-on-5 play, while only three made it while scoring more than 30 percent of their playoff goals on the power play.

Out of those 30 teams, 22 of them scored more than 64 percent of their playoff goals at 5-on-5.

(Broken down into two images since they all did not fit in one image)

And the teams that actually won the Cup? They were typically among the top-three most efficient 5-on-5 scoring teams in the postseason.

Now, again, with the Rangers we are dealing with a seven-game sampling of postseason games and goal numbers versus teams that had an entire postseason of games. I get that. There is still time for their 5-on-5 scoring efficiency to change and get better. But the point here is it’s still pretty uncommon for a team to go this far (or further) with so little 5-on-5 scoring. It’s different, and it’s hard to argue against that.

Of course, the Rangers do have one other significant X-factor on their side that is working in their favor, and that is starting goalie Igor Shesterkin.

Goaltending changes everything, and on any given night the Rangers have the best goalie on the ice. And right now Shesterkin is playing at an absolutely absurd level where the only thing beating him are deflection shots that change direction at the last second.

After Thursday’s win he has a staggeringly high .935 save percentage, and going back to February 1 of the regular season he is 24-5-1 in his past 30 starts with a .932 save percentage.

The league average save percentage this season is around .904.

He is just simply playing on a different level than everybody else at the position right now, and it really does not matter what else is happening with your team at 5-on-5 or on special teams if you are getting that level of goaltending. You are going to have a chance every single night.

It is a different recipe and formula than we typically see with playoff teams, and it is working for them. And until it stops you (or I) can’t really say anything about it except … “hey, maybe I was wrong about it.”

2. Can Edmonton overcome its weaknesses?

Sometimes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs success or failure can be more about your weaknesses than your strengths, and that is something to watch out for with the Edmonton Oilers.