Nobody is going to be sensible about Sam Bennett in free agency; Chris Kreider trade grades

Some thoughts on the most polarizing free agent in this year's class, and also the big NHL trade on Thursday between the New York Rangers and Anaheim Ducks.

Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett is playing his way toward a potentially massive contract this summer in free agency, whether it be with his current team or somebody else.

From a playing style perspective, he’s the type of player that general managers and head coaches fantasize about. He’s big. He’s physical. He plays with an edge. He skates right along the line between clean and dirty and has mastered the art of playing a greasy game without going so far over the line that it gets him suspended.

He’s also pretty productive, typically scoring around 20-25 goals and 40-45 points per season.

Along with that, he’s been incredibly productive in the playoffs during Florida’s past three Stanley Cup Finals.

When the season shifts from regular season to postseason his offense has jumped from “good middle-six player” to “fringe top-line player.”

It’s not easy to find that. Most players, even the greats, tend to see their offense drop a little in the playoffs. That is not the case with Bennett.

It’s that clutch play and production that is going to drive the much of the narrative around his free agency and is going to push people — and probably teams — into madness when it comes to his value and pursuing it. He’s going to be “the type of player you need to win” and there’s even been speculation that his contract could reach the $9 or $10 million per season level. Even under a rising salary cap that is going to be an outrageous number.

Along with that, there is going to be a pushback against him that is going to overcompensate for the inflated value.

Nobody is going to be rational about this.

He’s either going to be a must-have player if you want to win a Stanley Cup, or a bum of a player because teams overvalue him.

The truth, as is usually the case in these situations, is going to come somewhere in the middle.

On his current contract ($4.425 million per season) and in his current role Bennett is a wildly valuable player for the Panthers. His cap hit this season was only the ninth-highest on the Panthers. In terms of role and ice-time, he was ninth in minutes per game (and fifth among forwards) and is AT BEST the fourth or fifth best player on the team.

He’s not making the biggest contract.

He’s not playing the biggest role.

He’s not being asked to do the heaviest lifting.

That’s not meant to downplay his impact, because he is incredibly impactful and effective. He is a big part of the Panthers’ success in previous seasons and this season. The offensive production and big moments in the playoffs speaks for itself. It’s also true that he’s in a great situation surrounded by elite playmakers and stars. He’s a complementary player (a damn good one) and not the focal point. That matters. A lot.

But when you sign a player in free agency, or add a player in a trade, you are not just acquiring their production. You are acquiring their age, their history, the injury history, the contract, and every other variable that comes with them.

If a team goes into free agency and gets into a bidding war for Bennett and ends up paying him $9 or $10 million per season, suddenly the math on his value changes.

Bennett at $9 or $10 million on this Panthers team wouldn’t be the same value because it would be more than double his current number, which would almost certainly limit their ability to build the exact team they have.

Another significant contributor would not be there. The depth would suffer. A lot.

When you pay a player that much money you’re also expecting more out of them.

And if he goes to a lesser team that doesn’t also have Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling and Sergei Bobrovsky on it that team might not be as well positioned to compete, or even guarantee itself a playoff spot, significantly negating a lot of his perceived value. You can’t be clutch in the playoffs if you’re not getting to the playoffs. You’re probably not getting to the playoffs by paying a guy $10 million to score 20 goals and 45 points and be one of your go-to players.

The best situation for Bennett in terms of winning is to remain in Florida where he can playing the role he plays on a team that has other players that can do the heavy lifting and where he’s not expected to be one of the top-two or three players.

But he probably won’t be able to get the most possible money if he does that.

If he takes the money and goes to a lesser team where he has higher expectations, it may not go as well.

Moving on from Chris Kreider is fine, but the Rangers’ next move is way more important

Now let’s talk about the other big NHL news of the day, the New York Rangers trading Chris Kreider to the Anaheim Ducks.

The trade

New York Rangers receive: Carey Terrance, 2025 third-round pick
Anaheim Ducks receive: Chris Kreider, 2025 fourth-round pick

This was a necessary move for the Rangers, a confusing move for the Ducks, and what happens next for both teams probably means more than this move itself.

Let’s talk about it.