NHL Trade Deadline Primer: Pavel Buchnevich, Trevor Zegras and Kaapo Kakko are potential wild cards
Will any of these three get traded? Probably very doubtful. But they present some of the more interesting possibilities that could be available on the trade market.
The 2023-24 NHL Trade Deadline is just a few weeks away so it is time to start taking a look at some of the teams and players that could be big factors. Today we look at three players that don’t need to be traded but could be wild card players on the market. And their teams should be very careful about dealing them.
In most cases the NHL Trade Deadline is dominated by players in the final year of their contract as rebuilding teams (or bad teams) look to unload players they are likely to lose in a few months for whatever they can get. The returns on those trades are pretty consistent and pretty much a boiler plate move.
If Jake Guentzel gets traded he is going for a first-round pick and a prospect.
Adam Henrique will bring the Ducks a first-round pick and maybe a salary dump from a team that needs cap space.
Jake Allen might bring Montreal a third-round pick.
Some third-line center or second-pairing defenseman will go for two second-round picks or a second-round pick and a conditional 2026 third-round pick.
San Jose will get a second-round pick for Anthony Duclair.
It never really changes, and it is just a matter of which team ends up paying the expected price. There will be no real surprises here with any of these players.
Where things get interesting is when you start dealing with players that have term remaining on their contracts beyond this season. Especially if that term is affordable against the salary cap. That is when the prices and returns start to get a little more impactful because that extra contract term is a huge part of the trade puzzle. If you are the team trading that player, you have the leverage to demand and ask for more in return because you do not have to trade the player.
When you are trading a player you are not just trading that player’s production. You are trading their production, their injury history or status, their age, their potential, their contract length, the salary with their contract and everything else that goes into a player’s value. All of that impacts the asking price and eventual return.
If you know you are getting a player for multiple playoff runs and multiple seasons, it becomes easier and more justifiable to pay a steeper price.
There are three intriguing names that have been talked about this season that fall into this non-rental category — St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich, Anaheim Ducks forward Trevor Zegras, and New York Rangers forward Kaapo Kakko.
Let’s start with Buchnevich, who I would argue is the player out of that group that might have the best chance to get moved.
On the surface, the idea of the Blues trading Buchnevich would seem a little illogical given his production (he is a wildly productive and underrated scoring winger), the fact he has one year remaining on his contract, and with the Blues currently occupying a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
It’s not really a “sell” sort of situation.
But the Blues need to be realistic here. Even with Buchnevich they are not quite a lock for the playoffs (they enter Tuesday sitting in the second Wild Card spot with a slim lead over Nashville and Minnesota), and even if they do get in are going to be substantial underdogs in their first-round matchup. Given the standings right now they would be put into the Pacific Division bracket and would need to get through Vancouver and then Vegas/Edmonton just to reach the Western Conference Finals.
Sure, nothing is impossible in pro sports, but the odds are not in their favor.
The biggest argument that has been made in favor of shopping Buchnevich is that his next contract is likely going to be substantial, the Blues may not want to pay it, and dealing him now would allow them to maximize the value coming back. This is literally a “sell high” type of situation. And given where the Blues are in the standings, and the makeup of their roster, I don’t think it’s the worst idea.
Trading somebody like Buchnevich doesn’t mean you are throwing in the towel long-term (or even short-term). It doesn’t mean you’re rebuilding or not intending to compete in the coming seasons. What it could be is an opportunity to maybe shift the makeup of the roster and address some big shortcomings. Especially as it relates to their defensive play. When the Blues were a Stanley Cup level team in the late 2010s their calling card was suffocating defensive play and territorial dominance that just sucked the life out of opposing offenses.
That is no longer the case as the Blues have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league for a couple of years now. Ryan O’Reilly is gone. Alex Pietrangelo is gone. Even Vince Dunn (who never got the role he deserved in St. Louis) is gone. Trading a player like Buchnevich at peak value could present an opportunity to maybe bring in a player or assets (draft picks, prospects, cap space) that could help rebuild some of those areas.
You still have to get a good offer to make the move, and you can’t just trade him for the sake of trading him, but I can definitely see why the Blues might want to listen or shop him.
Players like Zegras and Kakko present an entirely different challenge and situation, making a trade a little less likely. And significantly riskier.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Adam's Sports Stuff to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.