NHL Playoff Race Update (Vol. 6): What your team needs to do

The Eastern Conference and Western Conference playoff races are going to be insanely crazy for very different reasons.

We are now officially into the stretch run of the 2025-26 NHL regular season, and just two weeks away from the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As of Wednesday there are only two teams that have officially clinched a playoff spot (the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars) and only two teams that have been mathematically eliminated (the Vancouver Canucks and New York Rangers). There are several teams knocking on the door of both categories as the April portion of the schedule begins.

The playoff races in both conferences are getting really insane, but for very different reasons.

In the Eastern Conference, you are still dealing with a situation where it is probably going to take at least 96 points to get in, while there are realistically six teams competing for what probably amounts to three playoff spots (the second and third playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division and the second wild-card spot).

In the Western Conference, you have what Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid accurately described as “a pillow fight” where it might only take 85 points to get in the playoffs, which is an insanely, laughably low number. Teams that have no business being in the playoff race are still in it. Only one team in the Pacific Division (the Anaheim Ducks) would have a points percentage above the playoff cut line in the Eastern Conference, and even then it is marginally above it.

While the Eastern Conference race is getting so much of the attention, the Western Conference is far more intriguing to me just because it is so ridiculous with probably six teams realistically fighting for one playoff spot (the second wild-card spot).

With all of that said, it is time to start looking at what your team needs to do over the next two weeks. We start with the Eastern Conference.

When March began every team that was in a playoff position was on pace for at least 99 points, with seven of them on pace for at least 101 points. That line has lowered a little bit over the past month. Entering play on Wednesday the playoff cut-off line based on points percentage is now at 96 points, but there are currently 13 teams on pace for at least 95 points and 14 teams on pace for at least 93 points. My guess is that cut-line number will probably stay close to the same, and perhaps even drop by a point or so as some of these teams play each other and some of these teams play incredibly difficult schedules the rest of the way.

The table below looks at the standings, as ranked by points pace, and what each team needs to do to reach both 96 points and 100 points. The Carolina Hurricanes, Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning are already above 96 points, while the Hurricanes and Sabres have already reached 100 points.

There are five teams where it is mathematically impossible for them to reach 100 points, and four teams that can not reach 96 points.

Carolina, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins look like they are in, even if not mathematically so at this point. The Pittsburgh Penguins did themselves a huge favor on Monday and Tuesday with their wins over the New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings, while also getting a ton of help on the out-of-town scoreboard. They are really close to being in. If they get three more wins they are almost certainly in. Potentially with only two more wins depending on what some of the teams below them do.

The Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers group is where things get interesting.

Two of those teams are going to get in, with one of those spots going to a top-three team in the Metropolitan Division. That is where Columbus, the Islanders and Flyers come into play. The Flyers are suddenly back in play here, and the thing that is going to help them is the fact they have eight games remaining to play, while Columbus and the Islanders have seven and six games respectively.

Let’s just narrow it down to Metropolitan Division race for the second-and-third spots, as well as looking at the Eastern Conference wild-card race and the entirety of the Western Conference playoff race.

Let’s talk about it.