NHL Playoff Race Update (Vol. 4): What your team needs to do

It is time for another look at the NHL Stanley Cup Playoff races as the month of February begins.

With a new month beginning, that means it is time to take another updated look at the Stanley Cup playoff race for the 2025-26 NHL season.

As we have done in our first three updates, we are looking at both conferences and what each team needs to do to reach certain benchmarks that could result in a playoff spot.

Just as a reminder: Teams are sorted by their current points pace. We will also be looking at what each team needs to do to reach 95 points (typically the safe cut-off line to reach the playoffs in most seasons) over their remaining games and what they need to do to reach the current playoff cut-off lines given every team’s current pace.

We begin with the Eastern Conference, where teams are really starting to separate themselves.

There are also two very different cut-off lines in the Eastern Conference depending on what division your team is playing in.

In the Metropolitan Division, the New York Islanders are holding the No. 3 spot (by a pretty wide margin) and are on track for 97 points. If one of the teams below them in the division standings wants to catch them, that is the mark they need to be looking at right now.

The current cut-off line for a wild-card spot (and the third spot in the Atlantic Division) is actually a little higher, with the second wild-card team as of Sunday (the Boston Bruins) on pace for 100 points.

So if you are a Metropolitan Division team, 97 points is your current target.

If you are an Atlantic Division team or potential wild-card team, you need to be looking at closer to 100 points.

The table below has all of those numbers on them, and the points percentage each team needs to reach those marks.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes are both looking really good right now.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the big risers over the past month and are also getting very close to that “looking really good right now” category, entering play on Sunday with the third-best points percentage in the Eastern Conference. They are closer to first place in the conference than they are to being on the outside of the playoff picture. That is still a staggering development given the preseason expectations. They might no longer just be a surprising story and a surprising team. They might actually be a legitimately very good team.

There is also a pretty big gap starting to form between the eight teams currently in a playoff position and the eight teams on the outside of the playoff positions. The Columbus Blue Jackets have played their way back into things and are lurking just behind the New York Islanders for that third spot in the Metropolitan Division. They are still in it.

The Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators really need to start putting wins together, and quickly. They are well off the pace of the top-three teams in the Atlantic Division, and have a pretty big gap between them and the potential wild-card teams. Based on points percentage, the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins would be the wild-card teams as of Sunday, and there is still a significant gap between them and the non-playoff teams. It is really difficult to make up that many points this late in the season, and they might be running out of time.

That is same is true for pretty much everybody below them.

The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers need to be focussing on catching the Islanders more so than a potential wild-card spot. Even then, it is going to be a challenge.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils are getting close to being out of it, if they are already not. They not only need to go on a crazy run here, they will also need a lot of help. Those are two extremely underwhelming teams that have simply underachieved. In Toronto’s case, it is a team that just seems to have absolutely zero direction.

The New York Rangers are the one team in the Eastern Conference you can confidently say is done for this season. Better luck next season. They are the only team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage below .500 and they are currently on pace for just 73 points this season. To even reach the 95-point mark mark they would need to play at an .865 pace the rest of the way. They would basically need to be the greatest team of all-time between now and Game No. 82 to even have the slimmest of slim chances. If they lose more than one game the rest of the way they would have no chance of reaching the 100-point mark. Just a complete failure of a season that is starting the next re-tool for them. They are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. They are realistically eliminated from playoff contention.

Now, we move on to the Western Conference where things are a little more up for grabs in the lower half of the playoff picture.

Let’s talk about it.