Mike Sullivan might be running into the same problem with the Rangers

His team has the right process but does it have the players to turn that into results.

The New York Rangers have made a habit out of winning games (a lot of games!) in recent years with a very questionable process driving their results. Every version of their team, and every game they played, always looked the same.

They would get badly out-shot and out-chanced during 5-on-5 play, score a couple of power play goals, and then let their latest franchise goalie (in this instance Igor Shesterkin) do literally everything else. It did not matter how many flaws the team had, how many chances they would give up, or how uninspired their play at even-strength would be because they had a goalie that would always mask it and a power play that could capitalize on one mistake and change a game.

It never seemed sustainable.

But even when they were able to sustain it for a couple of seasons it still lowered their ceiling come playoff time and held them back against the truly top-tier teams in the NHL.

In 2024-25, Shesterkin was more mortal than superman and their power play dropped from third in the NHL in 2023-24 all the day down to 28th overall. Then they stopped winning.

When I say every Rangers game and team looked the same, that is not an exaggeration. Just look at their rankings in expected goals for per 60 minutes, expected goals against and expected goals share over the previous four seasons, along with their power play and all-situations save percentage rankings.

[Data In This Post Via Natural Stat Trick]

• 2021-22: 28th (xGF), 20th (xGA), 23rd (xGF%), 7th (PP), 1st (Sv%)

• 2022-23: 22nd (xGF), 17th (xGA), 22nd (xGF%), 7th (PP), 8th (Sv%)

• 2023-24: 20th (xGF), 18th (xGA), 22nd (xGF%), 3rd (PP), 5th (Sv%)

• 2024-25: 16th (xGF), 28th (xGA), 26th (xGF%), 28th (PP), 15th (Sv%)

In terms of their ability to out-chance teams and out-play teams during 5-on-5 play, they were consistently among the lower half of the league over the past four seasons. In the first three seasons shown here it did not hurt them because their power play was so good and their goaltending was so elite.

That recipe can take you on a decent journey. It will win a lot of games against second, third and fourth tier teams in the regular season, and it will get you into the playoffs. That goaltending can also carry you through a round or two when you do get there. It will get you close. But eventually you are going to run into a buzzsaw that is going to carve you up so much at even-strength that it is going to negate those strengths that you do have on the power play and in goal.

In other words, the Rangers were the latest team to fall victim to the curse of elite goaltending. Our goalie is better than yours and we’re winning a lot of games so obviously we’re doing something right. Flaws? What flaws?! Look at the wins!

Except they weren’t doing everything right, it lowered their ceiling, and they kept asking “what happened?” when a real Stanley Cup contender came along and exposed the flaws they did not think existed.

It happened to Henrik Lundqvist. It happened to Carey Price in Montreal. I would argue it is happening to Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg. It has been happening to Igor Shesterkin.

Finally the 2024-25 season came along, and when the power play wasn’t dominant, and when Shesterkin was only above average instead of great, the Rangers finally started to realize, hey, wait a minute … something is wrong here.

Their biggest move to address that was to bring in Mike Sullivan as their new head coach. Sullivan arrives in New York with a (two-time) Stanley Cup winning resume, a much-needed new voice and some serious credibility.

What I find fascinating about this is his final three seasons in Pittsburgh followed the exact opposite trend as what the Rangers were dealing with.

While the Rangers mostly had results over process, the Penguins had a lot of process over results. I can’t tell you how many times you would watch a Penguins game over the past three years and say to yourself, “they were the better team. I can not believe they lost.”

You would look at the underlying numbers and metrics and think, “well, if they do that every game they are going to win a lot of games.”

And then they would do it every game and not actually win a lot of games.

Some of it came down to bad goaltending. Some of it came down to a bad power play. some of it came down to defensive breakdowns in big moments. There was another part of it that came from a lack of finishing talent to turn their chances and expected goals into actual goals.

Given how mediocre the Penguins’ actual results were under Sullivan the past few years, I do not think the average hockey fan realizes how strong some of their 5-on-5 play was in terms of dictating the pace of play and a territorial advantage. Especially offensively.

Their rankings in the same categories as mentioned above with the Rangers.

• 2021-22: 9th (xGF), 5th (xGA), 7th (xGF%), 21st (PP), 2nd (Sv%)

• 2022-23: 3rd (xGF), 18th (xGA), 4th (xGF%), 14th (PP), 13th (Sv%)

• 2023-24: 4th (xGF), 27th (xGA), 13th (xGF%), 30th (PP), 13th (Sv%)

• 2024-25: 8th (xGF), 23rd (xGA), 17th (xGF%), 6th (PP), 28th (Sv%)

While their defensive metrics were typically … not good … their offensive metrics were consistently among the league’s elite, and so good that it still typically resulted in them out-chancing their opponents even with the issues defensively (right up until the 2024-25 season). Sometimes by a pretty significant margin.

But because their power play did not always come through, and because their goaltending was not always reliable, the results were not always there.

There was also one other big problem that always slid under the radar given some of the names on the roster and the Penguins’ history as a great goal-scoring team: They never consistently turned those expected goals offensively into actual goals.

If you look at the 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons as one big collective group, the Penguins generated the third-most expected goals in the NHL during 5-on-5 play.

They were 20th in actual goals scored.

One year of it is bad luck.

Two years of it is maddening and frustrating.

Three years of it is a trend.

It is only five games to open the 2025-26 season, but that same trend is happening for Sullivan with the Rangers.

The Rangers team that spent years getting dominated during 5-on-5 play has completely flipped the script and has, so far, mostly delivered a strong process. But they are not scoring goals. Now the same Rangers fans that spent years yelling at anybody that dared question the process behind their results are trying to convince themselves this process is more important than the early results.

They might end up being right.

In theory, they should be right.

They are in no way wrong for thinking that way.

But there is also a chance — a very real chance — that Sullivan simply swapped one less-than-perfect situation for another less-than-perfect situation.

They look very similar.

And it might show us that Sullivan is actually an outstanding tactical coach (at least offensively) that has not had — and still might not have — the players to make it work.

Let’s talk about it a little more and in some deeper detail.

The main takeaway here: Chances are great. But who is getting those chances matters. A lot.