Buy or sell: The Buffalo Sabres can win the Stanley Cup this season

Discussing that, along with some other buy-or-sell discussions around the NHL.

Every year there is always at least one team that emerges from the previous season’s pile of mediocrity and establishes itself as a playoff team, and perhaps even a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. There are a couple of candidates for that this season, but none of them are more surprising than the rapid rise of the Buffalo Sabres.

I did not see this coming.

You did not see this coming.

I am pretty confident Buffalo Sabres fans did not see this coming.

After 14 consecutive years of missing the playoffs, the longest such drought in NHL history, the Sabres looked like they were on track to extend that streak to a 15th consecutive season in early December. Following an ugly 7-4 loss to the Calgary Flames on Dec. 8, they were 11-14-4 and residing in their usual spot at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.

A week later they fired general Kevyn Adams.

They have not really stopped winning since.

Since that early December loss to Calgary, Buffalo is 29-6-2 entering play on Saturday (by far the best record in the NHL during that stretch) and has climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division.

While I still think there are deeper issues with the Sabres organization that go far beyond the general manager, coaches, or players (I do not trust Terry Pegula, and you should not either) you have to give a ton of credit to the players for going on this sort of a run. It has been incredible to watch, and you can just sense the vibe shift among the fan base whenever you turn on a game that is being played in Buffalo.

That is a great fan base that has deserved way better than it has been treated by ownership and management over the past decade-and-a-half, and there is an obvious buzz in the building. Even though it did not result in a goal or a win on Thursday, that sequence where Tage Thompson unleashed five consecutive one-timers was a truly incredible sight to behold. You did not even have to be in the building to sense the excitement and build-up of anticipation every time the puck made its way back over to him, and seeing the entire arena rise to its feet as it was happening is just peak hockey crowd vibes.

When the Sabres are good, that’s a tough place to play. Especially when it is an entertaining team. This is an entertaining team.

While they have not mathematically clinched a spot, they are almost certainly going to the playoffs as five or six more wins should get them above the likely playoff cut-line this year. The questions that remain now are, 1) Can they win the Atlantic Division, and 2) Are they actually Stanley Cup contenders.

Let’s talk about the latter in a buy-or-sell sense, and also buy-or-sell a few other NHL teams as we enter the stretch run of the regular season.

Buy or sell: The Buffalo Sabres can win the Stanley Cup this season

At this point it is kind of hard to bet against them given the way they have played for more than half of the season and continued to pile up wins, even against the league’s best teams.

They also have a lot of key ingredients that you want to see a Stanley Cup team possess.

They have a top-line goal-scorer in Thompson that can swing a game with one shot.

They have a Norris Tropy-caliber defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin who can control a game when he is on the ice.

You need top-tier talents, and they have a couple of them that are near the top of their positions. That is important.

Their penalty kill has been outstanding.

Their goaltending has punched above its weight class and has the fifth-best all-situations save percentage in the NHL, despite none of them really being what you would consider a No. 1 goalie.

They also have some really good depth and young pieces. The JJ Peterka trade has worked out better than anybody could have anticipated as Josh Doan has rapidly emerged into a major contributor all over the ice. It is also a pretty balanced and deep team that is a top-five goal-scoring team, with 10 players having already scored at least 10 goals. There are five players that have already scored at least 15 goals.

Only two of their regular contributors are over the age of 28, and only one of them is over the age of 30.

While there is a LOT to like here, I do also see a couple of potential flaws that could keep them a step below the truly top Stanley Cup contenders.

I would like to see them control play more during 5-on-5 play and do a better job when it comes to out-chancing teams.

Entering play on Friday their 49.3 percent expected goals share is 20th in the NHL, sandwiched directly between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils.

Recent Stanley Cup winners have mostly been above 52 percent in that category and closer to the top-10. And that is true across the board when it comes to scoring chances and high-danger chances.

The only Stanley Cup winners over the past decade that were around the same area as this Sabres team in terms of their ability to push play were the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights and the 2017-18 Washington Capitals.

But even Vegas was on the plus side of most of those scoring chance metrics.

The Capitals were the one true outlier.

Their 2.78 expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play are 23rd in the NHL, sandwiched directly between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Seattle Kraken.

Goaltending, and especially goaltending on the penalty kill, is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

You do not have to be the BEST team in the league in these areas to win, but you do at least have to tilt the ice more in your favor than the Sabres currently are, and do more to insulate your goalies from consistent chances.

That could hurt them in a best-of-seven series against a team like Tampa Bay or Carolina, or Dallas or Colorado should they get that far.

The Sabres are a playoff team.

I buy them as a team that can win a playoff round.

I might even buy them as a team that can potentially win a second playoff round.

I am not ready to buy them as a Stanley Cup team this season. Sell on that. For now.

Buy or sell: Kevyn Adams is going to get GM of the Year votes

Let’s stick with another Sabres topic here and look at whether or not their fired general manager is going to get votes for the General Manager of the Year award.

Or perhaps even win the damn thing.

Let’s talk about it.