Buy or sell: Six early surprises (good and bad) in the NHL

Looking at six NHL teams off to surprisingly good and bad starts this season and where or not you should buy or sell them.

There have been some really surprising teams in the NHL so far this season, both in terms of good surprises (Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Chicago) and bad surprises (Florida, St. Louis). Let’s take a look at those six teams and buy or sell whether or not their starts are a mirage or a sign of things to come this season.

The Anaheim Ducks … are good?

Record as of Nov. 10: 11-3-1, second best points percentage in NHL

Why you should buy them: It has been a long rebuild for the Ducks, but after seven straight non-playoff seasons they are finally starting to see some results. They are pretty fun to watch, as well. The biggest driving factor in that early success, and the biggest reason for optimism this season, is that a lot of their young talent at forward is starting to take off.

Leo Carlsson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, is off to a staggeringly good start with 25 points in his first 15 games. You could see the potential with him over his first two years in the league, and now he has put it all together and started to arrive. He’s currently on a 136-point pace over 82 games and driving play like a franchise center. He’s not going to maintain that point production, and he’s currently scoring on 27 percent of his shots, but he’s a great young player that’s going to be their No. 1 center for the foreseeable future. He is legit.

Cutter Gauthier has become a goal-scoring force with 11 goals in his first 15 games, and he’s doing it without needing an unsustainable run of shooting luck. He scored 20 goals as a rookie and is generating more than enough shot quantity to suggest his goal-scoring could — and perhaps should — continue. He already has 69 shots on goal in 15 games. No other player on the team has more than 37. That shot volume will play in the NHL, especially with his talent.

Of their top-six scorers as of Monday, four of them are age 23 or younger.

They are also getting some strong veteran contributions. Troy Terry isn’t a star, but he’s a legitimate top-six forward and is on track for another strong season. Chris Kreider has bounced back when he’s been in the lineup.

They are one of the top offensive teams in the league and are doing that while getting next to no offense from Jackson Lacombe, their best young defenseman. Get him going and you might really be on to something.

Overall they have had some shooting percentage luck that will regress at some point, but they are still doing a great job generating chances sitting 6th in expected goals for per 60 minutes and eighth in high-danger chances per 60 minutes (both during 5-on-5 play). Even if the percentages regress on an individual and team-wide level, there is still enough there to suggest they should still be able to generate offense.

Why to sell them: As good as the Ducks have been offensively, they have been equally bad on the defensive end.

As of Monday they they rank 32nd out of 32 teams in expected goals against per 60 minutes (3.15) and 32nd in high-danger chances against (14.1). That’s not ideal. Right now starting goalie Lukas Dostal has done enough to give them league-average play in net, but they are still only 16th in the league in goals against per game and have allowed at least three goals in nine of their first 15 games. That includes five games with at least four goals against and three games with at least five goals against.

The most shocking stat here: They are 3-0 in games where they have allowed five goals.

The rest of the NHL is 5-88 when they allow at least five goals in a game this season.

Something tells me they will not be able to keep outscoring teams at that rate.

Buy or sell: I am selling them as being one of the best teams in the NHL because there are some real concerns with the way they defend. But the offense might be legit, and that is going to give them a chance most nights, especially if they get capable goaltending. I think I am getting close to buying them as a playoff team simply because these early results count, and they’ve banked themselves a nice cushion in the standings. In the salary cap era teams that win at least 11 of their first 15 games have the playoffs 55 out of 61 times (90.1 percent). Recent history is on their side. You can not make the playoffs in October, but you can miss them. They have at least avoided that.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are a playoff team

Record as of Nov. 10: 9-5-3

Why to buy them: It really comes down to the fact they still have some really good players in the lineup and some future Hall of Famers that are still playing great hockey. I know there was an expectation at the start of the season for them to be closer to the Gavin McKenna lottery than a playoff spot, but a team that still has Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust is going to have a really hard time being that bad. Crosby alone is going to keep them in games and win them games.