Better luck next year: The Washington Capitals need a lot of work
This was a weird season, and I am not sure where they go next.
Welcome back to Better Luck Next Year, a series that will focus on each team as they get eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What went wrong, why it went wrong, what (if anything) went right, and what is next. We continue today with the next team to be officially eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention: The Washington Capitals.
The good news for the Washington Capitals is they were able to bounce back from missing the playoffs in 2022-23 to make a return trip this season. That is always something to be happy about because, honestly, some playoffs are better than no playoffs.
The bad news is they did not win a single game when they got there, getting swept i four consecutive games by the New York Rangers, and there is absolutely nothing to indicate that anything about this season’s success and turnaround is in any way sustainable next season and beyond.
This might be the bleakest short-term and long-term outlook for any of the 16 teams that actually made the playoffs this season.
The overall numbers are not kind for the Capitals.
Their 91 standings points are one of the lowest totals of any playoff team in recent years, and in most normal seasons it probably would not have been enough to get in. They were also outscored by 37 goals for the season, the worst goal differential for any playoff team since the 1990-91 season. That was during an era where some truly dreadful and awful teams were making the playoffs just because over 70 percent of the league made it each season.
They were 28th in goals scored, 16th in goals against and they needed an out-of-nowhere great year from Charlie Lindgren in net to finish even that high defensively.
It was not much better when you dug into the underlying numbers. Their expected goals share of 47.4 percent was 26th in the NHL and the worst among the 16 playoff teams. They allowed 2.63 expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play, ranking them 20th in the NHL.
Special teams were not much better as they ranked 18th on the power play and 19th on the penalty kill. When it comes to the former, that number was significantly boosted by a late season surge. In the first half of the season their power play was among the league’s worst.
In other words, they did not really do anything particularly well.
They deserve credit for doing what they needed to do at the end and overcoming some long odds and major flaws. They took advantage of a weak lower part of the Eastern Conference playoff field and probably overachieved.
That same formula next season is probably not going to produce as good of a result. That leaves the Capitals at something of a crossroads in where they go next and what they do.
No matter what path they choose, one thing is very obvious here — this core group is finished as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Adam's Sports Stuff to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.