Better luck next year: The St. Louis Blues have big questions, a lot of options and ... some potential

It is a team currently in no-man's land, but also with a potential path out of that area relatively quickly. If they play their cards right.

Welcome back to Better Luck Next Year, a series that will focus on each team as they get eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What went wrong, why it went wrong, what (if anything) went right, and what is next. We continue today with the St. Louis Blues.

It does get a little boring and repetitive talking about the importance of goaltending in the NHL, because there is only so many ways you can say it is probably the most impactful position in the sport.

But it is also the reality of the position. It really does change things that much.

If teams like the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers are examples of how elite goaltending can be a curse, tricking average teams into thinking they are better than they are, then the St. Louis Blues are what happens on the other side of that spectrum. It is where bad goaltending tricks otherwise good teams into thinking they have problems that may not actually exist.

That was definitely a big part of the Blues’ problem this season.

That was certainly the case when Jordan Binnington was standing in their crease.

Statistically speaking, he was the worst goalie in the NHL this season and it was not particularly close.

He was minus-22.4 in goals saved above expected. That ranked 98th out of 98 goalies in the NHL.

His minus-22.5 goals saved above average ranked 96th out of 98 goalies.

When he was the Blues goalie of record (40 games), they played at 67-point pace (13-20-7).

When Joel Hofer was the Blues goalie of record (42 games), they played at a 103-point pace (24-13-5).

Pretty significant difference. And in a conference where they missed the playoffs by just four points, it was a potentially season-changing difference.

Binnington remains one of the most baffling players in the NHL for me. Every piece of objective evidence we have to evaluate goalies suggests that since the Blues’ Stanley Cup win in 2019, he has been at best an average goalie. More frequently, he has been a significantly below average goalie. At times he has been an awful NHL goalie.

Despite this, the Blues still mostly lean on him.

Canada still trusts him in the international competitions, so much so that he seems to have a lock on the position whether there is somebody better than him or not (there usually is).

The Blues have stuck it out with Binnington’s contract nearly the whole way through and are entering the final year of it. If they can not find a taker for it this offseason (or if they chose not to try), there is still no reason why Hofer should not go into next season looking at the bulk of the playing time. He should at least get the opportunity to prove himself and what he can do with the bulk of the playing time.

But for as much of an issue as goaltending was, it was not the only thing that held them back and sunk their season.

They did not score enough goals, either at even-strength or on the power play.

They dealt with major injuries.

Some key players had down years.

They were only average when it came to tilting the ice and controlling the pace of play, finishing 25th in total shot-attempt share and 20th in expected goal share during 5-on-5 play.

They also go into the offseason with questions regarding what they are going to do with their two core forwards, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, as both have been mentioned in trade speculation for the better part of the past year.

There is a lot happening here.

There is also a lot of reason for optimism, especially as it relates to some of the young talent they have starting to break into the NHL. That talent looks even better and gets a significant boost if they keep Thomas (one of the league’s best playmakers), and give them a goalie that can consistently make saves. Along with that, they go into the offseason with three first-round draft picks and some salary cap flexibility at their disposal that could open the door for a potential big move. All of that could get them back into the playoffs pretty rapidly.

Let’s talk about all of that.