Better luck next year: The Buffalo Sabres finished strong, but they can not be fooled by that

Neither can you.

Welcome back to Better Luck Next Year, a series that will focus on each team as they get eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What went wrong, why it went wrong, what (if anything) went right, and what is next. We continue today with the next team to be eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention: The Buffalo Sabres.

The longest playoff drought in NHL history is still going, and I am not sure there is an immediate end in sight for it.

When the Buffalo Sabres were officially eliminated from playoff contention this past week, it extended their current drought to 14 consecutive seasons. That is four years longer than the second-longest drought in NHL history, six years longer than the second longest active drought, and with each passing year it becomes an even bigger embarrassment for the franchise and owner Terry Pegula.

Players have changed.

Coaches have changed.

General managers have changed.

The only thing that has not changed is the owner, and the results his franchise keeps producing.

The optimist might look at this Sabres season and see what has been a reasonably strong finish, with the team owning an 11-6-1 record over its past 18 games with still two games remaining going into Tuesday night.

There is something to be said for finishing the season strong and the team not mailing it in, even when the playoff hopes had realistically slipped away.

They also beat a lot of really good teams down the stretch, which, again … is something.

But what exactly does that mean for future seasons? And most importantly, next season? Is it something that can be built on? Is there momentum to be carried over?

There is not much evidence to suggest it will.

Both from the Sabres themselves this season and from comparable teams in recent NHL seasons.

Let’s just say, hypothetically, that the Sabres split these remaining two games and finish with at least 12 wins in their final 20 games and record at least 24 out of a possible 40 points down the stretch. That would be a strong quarter of a season and be a legitimate playoff pace over 82 games …. if they could sustain it.

The problem is they can not sustain it, and even bad teams are capable of putting together a solid stretch of games at some point over the course of an 82-game season.

This just happens to be the Sabres’ hot streak.

I went back to the start of the salary cap era and drilled down to teams that A) missed the playoffs, and B) finished the regular season with at least 12 wins over their final 20 games. These are teams that mostly played their best hockey of the season late. Teams that would have the argument of “they are building momentum for next season.”

I found 22 teams that fit that those parameters.

Half of them made the playoffs the next season. Half of them did not.

Of the teams that did, you had some examples of teams going on a percentage driven, PDO heater for a full year (like last year’s Vancouver Canucks) that was not sustainable over a year-to-year outlook. You also had some established teams like Tampa Bay that randomly missed the playoffs in 2016-17 that was sandwiched between Eastern Conference Final runs and was only two years removed from a Stanley Cup Final appearance.

The Sabres are not an established team, and even worse, there is nothing to suggest this strong end to the season was anything sustainable.

Over the past calendar month (when this run started) they are 27th in expected goals for per 60 minutes, 26th in expected goals against, 28th in expected goals share and 21st in goals scored percentage, all during 5-on-5 play.

The only thing that has really changed is their 5-on-5 shooting percentage has spiked to near the top of the league, and their power play has been red-hot. Expecting those two things to continue over a full season is expecting too much from this group. The process behind the late season results is not going to allow for that success to continue. This whole thing is a mirage.

The Sabres need to be smart enough to realize that.

What went right this season