Better luck next year: Maybe the Winnipeg Jets need to give Connor Hellebuyck some days off

This guy might just be tired.

Welcome back to Better Luck Next Year, a series that will focus on each team as they get eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What went wrong, why it went wrong, what (if anything) went right, and what is next. We continue today with the next team to be eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs: The Winnipeg Jets.

When the NHL awards are handed out for the 2024-25 season it is probably going to result in Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck joining a very exclusive group with his third career Vezina Trophy. It will be a well-earned honor given the way he played during the regular season, finishing with a .925 save percentage, a league-leading eight shutouts and a league-best 41.6 goals saved above average. He was, again, one of the biggest reasons the Jets won as many games as they did.

He is consistently one of the two-or three-best goalies in the NHL and one of the league’s most impactful players when it comes to determining the success or failure of his team.

He is great.

It is the third year in a row he is a Vezina finalist, and he is also an MVP finalist for the first time in his career (something that probably should have happened sooner).

For as great as he’s been, and for as many accolades as he’s accumulated, there is one big problem that keeps surfacing with his play every year.

He keeps fading in the playoffs.

Badly.

Especially over the past three seasons.

There is a gigantic swing from his regular season performance to his playoff performance, and at this point it is getting really difficult to ignore.

Just consider these two sets of numbers:

• Since the start of the 2022-23 season Hellebuyck’s .922 all-situations save percentage during the regular season is, quite literally, the best in the NHL among the 38 goalies that have appeared in at least 100 games. The same is true for his .931 even-strength save percentage, his 2.29 goals against average, his 121 wins and his 17 shutouts.

• Over that same time period, his .872 all-situations save percentage in the playoffs is the worst in the NHL among the 19 goalies that have appeared in at least 10 postseason games. In each of those individual postseasons his save percentage was .886 or lower, including a dreadful .866 mark this season. Even though the Jets advanced to the second-round this season (unlike the previous two seasons), Hellebuyck was still a constant issue having been benched in three different games and allowing at least three goals in nine of his 13 starts. He had a save percentage over .900 in just three games. It was like a completely different goalie in the Jets’ net.

There are a lot of different ways you can look at the second set of numbers. Is it simply small sample size noise? Do the lights get too bright for him in the playoffs or in big moments? Is there some sort of a mental block happening? Is the team in front of him playing worse? Maybe a combination of all of the above?

Hellebuyck offered his own explanation and talked about how he was over-tweaking his game, trying to make too many adjustments and overthinking his style and approach.

But what if there’s another, and perhaps simpler, explanation?

What if he’s just tired.

No. Seriously. I’m not kidding. What if the Jets are just grinding this guy down into dust during the regular season, and by the time the playoffs roll around he just has zero juice left in the tank?

Is that an outrageous theory?

There is not a team in the NHL that is as dependent on one goalie as the Jets are with Hellebuyck, and the workload they have asked him to take on over his career has to be taking some kind of a toll on him.

Being available and durable is a great trait.

At some point, though, you have to start wondering if the Jets are asking too much of their franchise goalie because they ask this guy to do A LOT.

Let’s dig into some more numbers on this.