Better luck next year: How do the Ottawa Senators make the leap from good team to contending team?

And is Brady Tkachuk going to be a part of that? Has his perceived value exceeded his actual on-ice value?

Welcome back to Better Luck Next Year, a series that will focus on each team as they get eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What went wrong, why it went wrong, what (if anything) went right, and what is next. We continue today with the Ottawa Senators.

There might not have been a bigger sleeper team entering the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs than the Ottawa Senators.

If there was a dark horse team to be picked in the Eastern Conference, and one that could have pulled off an early upset and made a run, Ottawa was probably the sexiest pick in that regard.

It was not hard to see why.

They were the “hot” team that was “peaking at the right time” going into the playoffs, owning a 21-6-4 record over their final 31 games, the second-best mark in the NHL over that stretch run. The results were outstanding, as was the process behind it. They were playing lockdown defense, allowing just 2.37 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (fourth best in the league), had the third-best expected goal share (behind only Vegas and Colorado) during that stretch and just seemed to be clicking on all cylinders.

It seemed like a team capable of making some real noise.

Maybe with a different first-round opponent they would have.

But when the playoffs actually began, they ran into a Carolina Hurricanes buzzsaw that swept them in four games, despite starting goalie Linus Ullmark owning a .932 save percentage in the series and allowing just nine goals. It was a testament to how good that Hurricanes team was (and is), and it should have been a wake-up call to everybody else in the league that it was going to be their year.

All of this leaves Ottawa with a few big questions to ponder going into this offseason.

1. Were they a good team and borderline contender that just simply ran into a bad matchup and played a bad four games?

2. Or was that “bad matchup” just an indicator of how far away they still are from being a serious Stanley Cup contender?

It was probably a little bit of both, but I would be at least a little concerned about question No. 2.

But there is another question that is going to need to be settled in the coming months and years regarding one of their top players.

What, exactly, is the future of Brady Tkachuk, and what is his future with the team?

And more importantly, what SHOULD it be?

And what role can he play in helping them make the improvements they need on the roster?

On an individual level there was probably not a single player that underwhelmed in that playoff series more than he did. His most impactful moment was a fight off the opening face-off of the series with Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal, and he then proceeded to be a non-factor the rest of the way. At least as it relates to the scoreboard.

Zero points.

A couple of truly bad penalties.

Outscored 3-0 when on the ice during 5-on-5 play.

No real tangible impact.

To be fair, there was also probably some element of small sample size noise and bad luck to it. He was, after all, among the Senators’ leaders in individual scoring chance and expected goals created, posting numbers that were very close to his regular season rates.

Sometimes star players go quiet for a few games in the playoffs, and that is where it becomes essential for your team to have the scoring depth to help make up for it to buy the star players more time.

But the penalties, at times out-of-control temper, and overall bad vibes were all concerning developments. He almost seemed to be too interested in trying to play like a caricatured version of “Brady Tkachuk” instead of just playing good, winning hockey. The fight off the opening face-off just seemed like a desperate attempt to replicate that 4 Nations game from a couple of years ago.

It didn’t work here.

None of it worked.

Tkachuk’s name had already been surfacing in trade speculation for the better part of the past year due to his contract (which has two years remaining) and questions about his willingness to re-sign with the team. To this point Tkachuk has remained firmly committed to the Senators with all of his public comments.

He also now has a no-movement clause and would need to okay any trade.

But with speculation flying about more players around the league potentially requesting trades this offseason, and the Senators coming off another short spring, it’s worth wondering if he might still end up being one of the players that wants a fresh start.

Especially after that podcast incident earlier this season with his brother and dad complaining about his lack of ice-time.

Potential hot take alert: I am not sure that would be the worst thing in the world for the Senators.

It’s not that I don’t like Tkachuk as a player. It’s not that he doesn’t have value. He is an objectively excellent hockey player that is probably one shooting percentage binge away from scoring 40 goals (or more) in a season. It could absolutely happen. He does do a lot of really good and outstanding things on the ice.

In most cases I don’t really buy into the “think of what you could get for this guy?” narratives. Generally speaking, I think teams should do everything they can to keep their cornerstone, franchise players, especially when they are in the prime of their careers.

But I am not sure he is that type of foundational, cornerstone player, even if he is a really good and really important player.

Even if you believe that he IS that type of player, I think there are some exceptions that can and should be made in this discussion.

Those exceptions:

• If the team believes, or knows, there is little chance of that player re-signing.

Or…

• If that player’s perceived value around the league begins to exceed their actual on-ice value.

The first point remains to be seen.

I think there might be something worth debating when it comes to the second point, especially when Tkachuk might not even be the best overall player on this particular Ottawa team.

(That, again, doesn’t mean he’s bad or not valuable.)

If I am Ottawa, I am looking at the fact that the Tkachuk name carries a ton of cache in the sport right now. Every time Brady or his brother, Matthew, do anything on the ice it gets hockey people into a lather and forces them to lose their collective minds whether it’s a meaningful contribution or not.

There is no shortage of general managers in the NHL that would crawl across hot coals and probably give up a family member to acquire one of these guys for their team.

The thing is, for as good as Brady is, he’s not Matthew. And if there is any lingering doubt about his willingness to stay in Ottawa beyond the next two years, or if he comes to you and asks to move on, you should be trying to capitalize on every other team’s desperation to get a player like him.

Don’t force a trade.

Don’t trade for the sake of trading.

But keep an open mind.

Let’s talk about that a little more, and everything that went right and wrong for the Senators this season.

What went right this season